In early November, ESPN and On3 2026 No.1 recruit Tyran Stokes announced the list of prospective colleges was down to just three: Kansas, Kentucky, and Oregon. It felt like a commitment was coming anytime soon. However, it’s been more than a month, and there is still no progress. In fact, Vanderbilt pitched in a last-ditch offer to the Rainier Beach star and is now believed to be in the mix. As the race was getting competitive, Mark Pope and Kentucky were making a push to bring Stokes in. 

The 6-foot-7 small forward was in action for Rainier Beach against Metro League foe Seattle Prep (Seattle). Stokes absolutely went off, scoring 52 points in the 100-72 win. Rainier Beach trailed 10-2 to begin the game and 41-37 at halftime. However, Stokes took the matter into his own hands, scoring 20 of his team’s 38 points in the third quarter. That included four-point plays on back-to-back possessions. Watching this drama unfold was a Kentucky recruiter who is keen to sign Stokes soon. 

“Kentucky assistant Jason Hart and Washington assistant Quincy Pondexter were in attendance to watch No. 1 overall recruit Tyran Stokes last night,” Joe Tipton reported. Unfortunately for Mark Pope, the grip on Stokes’ potential signing has been slipping away in recent weeks. Last week, Tipton reported that Kansas had bumped ahead in the race. 

“Those familiar with the situation say Kentucky has slipped while Kansas has picked up steam. I am told a return visit to Lawrence is possible,” he wrote. While the Washington Huskies aren’t on the three-college shortlist, Tipton wrote that it “has recently started to attend several of his games and could emerge as a contender,” and also that “Vanderbilt has now entered the picture.” Additionally, the situation has become more complicated for Kentucky due to the unique nature of its player contracts. 

Wildcats’ deal-breaker offer could compel Tyran Stokes to pivot

NIL has changed recruiting beyond just basketball and culture fit. It has mixed the financial aspect and the possible NIL opportunities in the decisions for high school prospects. In the case of Tyran Stokes, NIL might be one of the factors he is hesitating to commit. At one point, Pope and Co. were the favorites, but that has changed since. A unique contract clause from Kentucky could be among the reasons why he is trending towards Kansas and away from Kentucky.

There are some problems with the Wildcats’ contract that are affecting their recruiting ability. Kentucky has a deal with JMI, and according to KSR, it includes student-athletes to sign away NIL rights that would normally be untouched at any other school.’ There are advantages as well, such as gaining access to the UK’s 200+ partners; however, securing third-party deals becomes more challenging. In addition, Mark Pope’s emotional recruiting is becoming an obstacle for Kentucky, according to KSR. 

“In the trenches of these back-and-forths, sources said Pope would take offense to revised demands or competing schools upping their offers, struggling to grasp how big-time recruitments unfold in today’s world,” KSR wrote. 

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Another example of the UK losing recruits is Christian Collins. 247 Sports national analyst Travis Branham has removed his crystal ball prediction for Pope to land the 5-star power forward Collins. He was touted to join Kentucky in November, and much like Stokes, the momentum has cooled since. However, there is still hope as neither of those two has committed to any other program yet. Pope and his staff have time to work and get back their signature. Whether they will achieve it is yet to be seen.