Matt McMahon must have had a deja vu against Kentucky, but not in a good way. Two years ago, Tyrell Ward knocked down a buzzer-beater to beat Kentucky 75-74, as they stormed the court from a packed PMAC. Cut to today, LSU blew an 18-point lead against the same Kentucky. In the final seconds, the Wildcats inbounded the ball directly to Malachi Moreno on top of the key, who hit a Hail Mary buzzer beater that gave Kentucky the win. The scoreline? You guessed it, 75-74. 

LSU is now 12-5 overall and 0-4 in the SEC, with its NCAA Tournament hopes sinking by the minute. Coming into this game, they were 43rd in the NCAA NET rankings, but they will likely drop after this loss. And if coach Matt McMahon fails to get LSU to the Tournament for a fourth time in a row, his job is in trouble. Before the Kentucky game, LSU’s new athletic director, Verge Ausberry, had laid out the expectations plain and simple. 

“We’ve already had some discussions about what the expectations are,” Ausberry told the Baton Rouge Advocate on Tuesday. “One thing we want to do is make sure we’re in the NCAA Tournament. We made that very clear to Matt at the beginning of the year – that’s where we need to be.” He insisted that they would support Matt as his coach, but gave him a strict warning. “If he doesn’t make it (the NCAA Tournament),” Ausberry said, “we’ll have to reevaluate.”

Among the reasons, it’s also that the team’s progression arc is not looking good. McMahon was 14-19 and 2-16 during his first season in 2022-23, but improved to 17-16 and 9-9 with an NIT bid in 2023-24. However, they are coming off a season where they conceded that progress by going 3-15 in league play and 14-18 overall. And the graph so far seems to be going downwards. However, there are still a couple of ifs to a possible McMahon exit. 

The program separated from Scott Woodward as its athletic director back in October, and Ausberry, the deputy, stepped up to take over as an interim AD. So, this situation could still change if LSU hires another director or makes Ausberry permanent. Another aspect of the decision is the financial loss. When they hired McMahon in 2022, they gave him a deal till 2029. 

Matt McMahon’s contract at Baton Rouge started at $2.6 million and increases by $100k each year. If McMahon is let go, he’s entitled to half of what is left on his deal. That makes for a hefty spend. If McMahon is bought out this year, it’ll cost $6.1 Million, in 2026-27 it’ll cost $4.65 million, and in 2027-28 it’ll cost $3.15 million. Those numbers look minor at first glance since LSU has a huge athletics budget of over $200 million. However, as you dive in, there are reasons why they could avoid this decision.

First of all, they are facing a fiscal deficit in the 2025-26 season. LSU officials have predicted that the athletics department could face an $8 million deficit in this fiscal year, according to a report from The Advocate. LSU executive deputy athletic director Keli Zin said they are planning to develop other revenue streams to balance it by 2027. In addition, LSU has already paid more than $96 million to buy out the contracts of its coaches and athletics.

Former football coach Brian Kelly recently sued LSU to get his full buyout of about $54 million, which is among the largest ever given to any college coach. Kelly’s 10-year, $100 million contract guaranteed him 90% of his remaining salary if LSU fired him without cause, which they did just after 4 years. 

Considering this history, the department could prefer giving McMahon some more rope. However, he is still under pressure to perform as the management can disregard every reason and prioritise their on-court display. It’s clear that Matt McMahon needs results, but the coach was still satisfied with the team after the Kentucky loss. 

Matt McMahon Impressed With The Team Despite The Loss

There could be light at the end of the tunnel for LSU. The team was on a three-game losing streak coming into this game. They had crushing 10+ point losses in 2 of 3 games. It looked grim against a Kentucky side that is stronger on paper despite their own disappointing season. However, LSU came up with a fight, and to McMahon, they did everything to win the game. 

“I thought we got better tonight as a team, and I’m crushed for our players. I’m crushed for our fans. The environment was awesome. Our players laid it on the line, did everything we asked from a scouting standpoint, from a preparation standpoint,” he said in the post-game press conference. “Just crushed, we didn’t finish the deal. But the only way forward is to build on all those improvements that were made by our team over the last couple of days.”

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LSU has had a few close losses this season. And the slump has coincided with their junior star point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. being out with a lower leg injury. Thomas was leading the SEC in assists with 7.0 a game and scoring 16.2 a game before his injury. He was still out for this Kentucky game. 

Without their best scorer, the team put up a collective offensive performance with 5 players scoring in double digits. It was also their best offensive display in the last 3 games, signalling a shift from their losing streak. However, that 18-point meltdown will remain a blot on their amazing first-half performance. They have the calibre, but some mental strength and consistency would do their record a lot of good.