Miami has been listed as an 8.5-point underdog to Indiana in Monday’s CFP National Championship. Insider Eric Mac Lain has revealed a clear path for Mario Cristobal’s team to take down the undefeated Hoosiers. How? It’s simple: go for the big fish, the Heisman winner.

“Miami has to affect Fernando Mendoza. If he has all the time in the world to sit back there and throw the ball, you will lose by 30. If you hit him, if you get him running, if you get his eyes down, you will win the national championship,” said Lain.

In short, the Hurricanes’ defense must shut down Fernando Mendoza. It could help Cristobal’s team grind down the Hoosiers’ offense. This season, the Hurricanes generate pressure on 45% of dropbacks, the 11th-highest rate in the FBS, and the most Indiana will have faced all year in this championship matchup.

That changes the picture for the Hoosiers, who now meet a tough, physical Miami team. After fighting its way to the CFP National Championship through OSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, Miami arrives battle-tested, while Indiana is just as hungry. The Hurricanes have a chance to make history, chasing their first National Title Game appearance since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl that capped the 2002 season.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have been unstoppable this season. In fact, their 15-0 record had College GameDay legend Lee Corso claiming they are the “best college football team that I’ve ever seen.” So yes, Miami does have a big hill to climb at the Hard Rock Stadium on Monday.

Winning the line of scrimmage starts with shutting down Indiana’s run game. Here, keeping the Hoosiers under 100 rushing yards and limiting them to three yards per carry or less would give the Hurricanes a clear edge. The next key is pressure, and it has to come with just four rushers. Collapse the pocket fast and force Mendoza to speed up his clock.

That freedom lets Miami load up coverage and stay ready for QB runs and scrambles. But it won’t be a walk in the park for the Hurricanes. Mendoza has already answered the noise. He didn’t just win the Heisman; he earned it. In a 13–10 slugfest against OSU, he threw for 222 yards and a TD in a game ruled by defense. To cap it off, he led the game-winning drive that sealed Indiana’s first-ever B1G title. Now with him at the helm, IU’s offense looks built for moments like this.

Here, NFL scouts have poked holes in the shine.

While his arm talent has been questioned, the deep ball remains inconsistent, and the stat sheet backs it up. He sat 67th among FBS QBs in deep attempts of 20-plus yards for much of the season. For a projected top pick, that raised eyebrows. But some critics went even further, with analyst Jason Brown calling him a “fifth-round guy” and saying he’s simply “not special.”

But Indiana’s offense is one of the most potent rushing attacks in CFB, ranking 12th nationally with 218.3 YPG. Their defense is equally fierce, ranked 2nd in the nation, allowing just 260.9 YPG.

For the Hurricanes, the offense must turn strength into space. With Carson Beck and his weapons, they have the size and tools, but this game won’t be decided on just one drive. Indiana protects the ball and steals it better than anyone in the country.

Now, Miami knows the math. They have to win the turnover battle, or at least break even. Do that, and they have a solid chance of beating IU, having already proven their potential through their postseason wins.

Miami’s squad isn’t in doubt

Miami enters Monday night’s game as the ultimate underdog. Defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. said it best: this underdog role has been “our story the whole playoffs.” He believes that their journey panned out the way it was destined to.

From 100-1 to even making the playoffs to now chasing the crown at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami has thrived on proving everyone wrong. Probably, that’s why confidence runs deep in the locker room. Defensive end Akheem Mesidor has shrugged off the odds, saying being an underdog “really doesn’t mean anything.”

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“I’ve been an underdog my whole life, so being an underdog in this last game really doesn’t mean anything to me,” said Mesidor. “It might fuel me a little bit, but at the end of the day, I just want to play football and show that we are the best team in the nation.”

Carson Beck echoed the same sentiment. He claims the only thing that matters is the people in the locker room, the coaches, teammates, and fans who’ve backed them every step of the way.

The Miami Hurricanes got a shot at history tonight. However, it’ll all come down to hunting Fernando Mendoza. It remains to be seen whether the belief in the squad can help them pull off the upset against the dominant Hoosiers. What do you think?