ESPN’s Football Power Index indicates that Indiana has a 71.4% chance of winning the Rose Bowl on Thursday. Alabama? The stats show that they barely got a 28.6% shot. Well, Indiana enters the game as the top team in the nation, favored by a touchdown. Yet, things are slightly different in the Alabama locker room, where players are returning with renewed energy and determination.

LT Overton’s return hits differently when you understand how he’s coming back. It wasn’t a typical injury scenario. “The thing to remember about Overton is he’s not coming back from injury or medical-based issues, but that didn’t have anything to do with his legs, knees, ankles, arms, nothing like that,” Josh Pate said the alarming truth on the December 29 episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show.

That difference is why there’s a real belief Alabama isn’t easing him back.

“Normally, when defensive front guys return, they’re out of game shape. They’ll give you 18 to 20 snaps,” Pate said, but this is not the case with him. “I don’t expect that from Overton. I expect him to be a full wire-to-wire player in this game.”

The return of one of the defense’s most productive edge players, a Senior Bowl invitee with 35 tackles, six tackles for loss, and four sacks who was also nominated to the SEC Community Service Team and on many national award watch lists, is enormous. Seeing Overton first in line during defensive line warmups this week looked intentional.

The fact that Overton isn’t the only one making a remarkable comeback makes the situation dangerous for Indiana. Both mentally and physically, the Oklahoma game was a turning point.

“They got through the Oklahoma game, and they got the 12 extra days, and now you get Overton back. But you get a healthier Jam Miller, and you get a healthier Josh Cuevas. They’re shockingly healthy as they’ve been since the early portion of the season,” Pate said.

After missing the SEC Championship Game, Jam Miller played against Oklahoma and declared himself 100% recovered. He credits this to Alabama’s training staff for putting his body back in shape. That’s where the emotional shift comes in.

“I think of it as kind of pulling a rubber band back and letting it go. Maybe that happened for Alabama,” Pate said.

Alabama seems to be loading up. And that sense of momentum doesn’t stop with Miller or Cuevas’s return. It carries into the conversations happening behind closed doors.

Inside Alabama’s locker room

That’s why the odds don’t tell the whole story. On paper, Indiana is favored, but even inside the numbers, there’s disagreement.

“FanDuel’s got Indiana minus six and a half. Our internal model has Indiana minus 3.5. And let me tell you, friends, I’ve got it closer than that. Nobody,” Pate stated.

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Inside Alabama’s building, the belief is that the Oklahoma game mattered and that it flipped something.

“I believe that Oklahoma game did something [for] Alabama. I will take Alabama to go out to Pasadena and be the one that beats Indiana this year,” Pate admitted.

On the other side of the ball, one name that keeps coming up is DC Kane Wommack, who is “the unsung name nationally why Alabama gets this done,” according to Josh Pate.

But Wommack also knows the margin for error is thin. With a quarterback who won’t give you free possessions, Indiana is a disciplined and explosive team. That’s why Alabama’s defense has taken center stage in this strategy. Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb are sending a warning.

“Now, I would argue he’s as good as any safety in the country right now,” Wommack said of Hubbard. “Keon Sabb has built himself into the position of being as good as any safety in the country right now. As a tandem and a duo, I think they’re playing at a really high level.”

Hubbard earned first-team All-SEC honors after tying for the league lead in interceptions, while Sabb has logged more snaps than anyone on the defense and brings in the Rose Bowl experience that very few in the locker room can match.

And that’s where this matchup tightens. Alabama’s defense is tied for first place in the SEC in sacks and takeaways, including three pick-sixes, and is in the top 10 against the pass and in the top 15 overall. But Indiana won’t back down. Curt Cignetti’s offense ranks No.1 on third down and only allows 1.39 sacks per game. Wommack, who was a coach there, is aware of this.

The outcome of this game can depend on whether Alabama pushes Indiana beyond its comfort zone or Indiana maintains efficiency and cleanliness. Alabama has a good shot because the locker room believes so.