What’s Kalen DeBoer’s second run in Tuscaloosa looking like? If you thought the Nick Saban era ending meant Alabama would morph into a middle-of-the-pack SEC team, think again. Yes, DeBoer has a strong history when it comes to year two. From leading Fresno State to 9-3 in his second year to leading Washington to a National Championship game in his second year, the Tide HC knows how to do things in his second year.

However, there are a few key factors that are going to be a challenge for HC DeBoer to start the season with. Bama will be traveling to Tallahassee to play their season opener against Florida State on August 30. And they will have to head back to Tuscaloosa and host ULM within a week on September 6 and again play Wisconsin on September 13.

On paper, these teams may not look as big as Michigan, Georgia, or any playoff-bound team, but considering this tight schedule, these three games will be DeBoer’s biggest challenge before Bama faces Kirby Smart’s Georgia on September 27. Adding more woes to the Tide, DeBoer will not have the services of some elite playmakers like Jalen Milroe, Malachi Moore, and Tyler Booker this season. Now, the real question is: can we assume they’re CFP bound?

Well, George Wrighster isn’t high on Alabama heading into 2025. In a new episode on George Wrighster’s College Football Podcast on July 11, the former NFL TE dropped the wildest college football predictions for the upcoming season, starting with the Crimson Tide playoff prediction. “They are going to miss the College Football Playoff again,” he said without missing a beat. “If the Tide do not start 4-0, the pressure to be perfect is going to be something that’s going to cause this team to fall apart.”

September is truly going to be PROVE-IT month for HC DeBoer because, as per Wrighster, the Crimson Tide is not that big of a threat in college football post-Nick Saban era. “They respect Alabama,” Wrighster said. “They don’t fear Alabama anymore because Nick Saban isn’t there anymore.”

The 2025 slate is manageable after that first month. They get seven home games, including Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma, in Bryant-Denny. Their only true nasties on the road are Georgia and the Iron Bowl finale at Auburn. But that Oct. 18 clash with Tennessee, even without Nico Iamaleava, looms large. FSU QB Thomas Castellanos said the quiet part out loud when he said, “Nick Saban ain’t walking through that door.”

Well, the problem for Alabama is that they’re not just battling opposing teams. They’re battling a perception shift. Now that the mystique is gone, there are a few dents, and programs like the Seminoles know that. “And it’s the lack of fear that makes me hesitate to put Alabama in my top 12 to make the college football playoff,” Wrighster added. And then there’s also the QB conundrum.

Can Kalen DeBoer’s Tide reclaim the edge?

Quarterback clarity is what Alabama needs. It’s a three-horse race between Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and Keelon Russell. As it stands now, Simpson has the edge in experience. Mack has chemistry with OC Ryan Grubb. Russell might be the future, but 2025 may be too soon to throw him into the fire. So what does ESPN’s algorithm say? The Crimson Tide sits at 66.2% to make the playoff, fourth-best in the nation.

They also have a 53% shot according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, essentially a coin flip. In the SEC, only Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee are projected better. But here’s the reality. Kalen DeBoer’s margin for error is thin. One early loss is tolerable. Two by Week 5, and they might be toast. With 18 national titles in the trophy case, Alabama is still chasing one more to finally leave Yale in the dust.

But unless Alabama channels the old fear factor, George Wrighster’s prediction could end up looking more prescient than provocative. Because at Bama, they don’t settle for anything less than legendary.