Arch Manning Faces $1 Million Consequences After Admitting Mental Struggles

Arch Manning rolled into the 2025 season with the biggest Heisman odds. Fast forward to week 3 of college football, and the games aren’t aligning like Manning planned. Analysts like Paul Finebaum and RJ Young are eating their words after his week 3 performance, and the pressure is taking a toll not just on the field, but off it too, with his NIL value taking a million dollar hit.

Manning came with a lot of expectations after the Longhorns had a shaky season with Quinn Ewers. But now, even after three games, he’s still searching for that rhythm. And stats don’t lie, as he only completed 55.3% of his passes for 579 yards, with six touchdowns and three interceptions. This inconsistency shows how much Manning needs to improve his game.

But now these struggles are also affecting his market value. As before the season kicked off, Manning’s NIL valuation was $6.5 million, and now in just three weeks he’s sitting at a $5.5 million valuation. This million dollar dip directly reflects the link between performance and value.

This drastic shift follows Texas’s close win against UTEP, where Arch Manning just completed 11 of 25 passes and threw 10 straight incompletions. After the game, even Steve Sarkisian admitted that Manning struggled with his delivery and also drew comparisons to golf and said, “Think about your golf swing. You try to swing hard, and then you try to slow it down at the very end and make good contact. That’s never a recipe for success, and that’s not a good recipe for throwing a football, either.”

Even the NFL draft buzz is fading around him. As CBS Sports has dropped his No. 1 overall pick odds from +850 last week to +1500 this week. By Week 3, Manning has became more unsteady and hesitant in his QB play. He held the ball too long, seemed jumpy in the pocket, and his throws lacked precision. This lack of confidence caused Sarkisian to simplify the offense, making it more manageable for the QB to make his throws. While Manning did add 51 rushing yards on nine carries, but relying on his legs won’t be sustainable against SEC defenses.

Arch Manning gets real on his mental struggles

Texas fans are going through all kinds of emotions with every game. This noise, in turn, starts to reach the players. Now the mistakes are taking their toll on Arch Manning. Even he admits the struggles are mainly mental. As after going against UTEP he told reporters, “Quite mental to be honest like I think I just need to go out there and play my game.” It’s pretty clear that living up to the Manning family legacy is not as easy as it looks.

Next week, their home game against Sam Houston will give Arch Manning the opportunity to rebuild his confidence and rhythm as that team is yet to win a single game this season. On top of that OC Kyle Flood is trying to enhance Manning’s dual-threat capabilities while reducing unnecessary pressure. So, everyone is on the same page.

Also the challenge of transitioning from backup to starter is something that puts another layer of pressure on a player. Manning threw just 95 passes over two seasons behind Quinn Ewers. That means he still needs time to adjust. And it’s not like he’s not aware of his inconsistencies as after the game he said, “It’s frustrating because I know I’m better than that. But you know, we’re going to be better this week and get clicking on offense. I’m excited to get going.” Above all despite a rough start, Manning’s athleticism remains undeniable. And even if Texas has dipped down on the AP poll numbers, there’s still hope left that this season is going to turn out different for the Longhorns.