Would Arch Manning even consider entering the 2026 NFL Draft? The 21-year-old hasn’t even started a full college football season, and folks are already tossing him into the No. 1 overall pick projections. And here we are, backed by family legacy, surrounded by expectations, and thrown into the NFL speculation before he even took a meaningful snap this fall. No wonder his dad, Cooper Manning, fired off an honest take—“These expectations for him are crazy. They’re beyond—they’re ridiculous.” Of course they are! 

Sports Illustrated’s senior reporter Albert Breer doesn’t believe that Arch Manning will be setting foot in the NFL next year. He dropped reality during his appearance on The Rich Eisen Show on May 6, when Rich Eisen floated the idea of the Browns and Rams possibly stockpiling 2026 capital for an Arch run. “I think we would be ignoring the family history if we assumed that he was going to be in the 2026 draft,” he said. “I think it’s too big a leap for NFL teams to make right now.”

And yeah, the Manning name is a huge factor for the expected greatness, given his uncles’ Eli Manning and Peyton Manning’s NFL success. “People are acting as if that’s automatic,” Breer added. “It’s really hard to be that good as a passer. Like as a thinker of the game. Like those guys are both at a really high level, so I mean maybe Arch is that, but we don’t know that yet.” And he’s not wrong.

You can’t deny it. The Manning name isn’t just famous. It’s football royalty. Peyton Manning? A 5x NFL MVP, 2x Super Bowl champion, and the first QB in the league to win 200 games and have two SB wins with two different teams. Then there’s Eli Manning. 2x SB champ and MVP. He holds the Giants’ records for passing yards (57,023), TDs (366), and completions (4,895). And with 210 back-to-back starts, the 4x Pro Bowler was one of the most durable and consistent QBs of all time, just second to Brett Favre. So when Arch Manning steps on the field, it’s the weight of a dynasty, and people expect instant greatness. 

But there’s another history that holds off Arch Manning from the NFL rush. “There’s the family history part of it, which is like you look at it like Eli Manning could have been a first round pick in 2003. He came back for a fifth year at Ole Miss and played in 2003 and was in the ‘04 draft,” Breer said. “Peyton Manning could have been the number one overall pick in ‘97 to the Jets. Instead, he decides to go back, and he’s the No. 1 overall pick in ‘98 to the Colts. So like the family history tells us that these guys aren’t going to rush from college.” And yeah, Cooper Manning already has a masterplan regarding his son’s NFL future. 

Cooper Manning weighs in on Arch Manning’s NFL future 

Cooper Manning steps in with a dose of reality for Arch Manning, who isn’t a typical QB riding social media clout to stardom. “The way Cooper had handled Arch over the years, I mean, the guy had to create a Twitter account to announce that he was committing to Texas, like he did not have social media until that point of high school,” Breer pointed out.

“They’ve wanted to really kind of preserve his childhood and preserve his high school experience and his college experience.” The national analyst also dropped the fact that QBs with 25+ college starts have a way better shot at the NFL. And the new Texas QB1 is nowhere near that number yet with just two starts under his name. But just hear what Cooper Manning has to say about all the talk around Arch Manning as a potential No. 1 overall pick next year….

“I think there’s just as much of a chance for Arch Manning to be the number one pick in the 2026 NFL draft as there is for him to come back to Texas and play football in 2026. He loves being at Texas. His younger brother, Hyde, is there. He’s unconventional.” And yeah, he also sees an unfavorable situation coming his son’s way.

Speaking on the Dan Patrick Show, he said, “I mean, you know how they do it in the media; they crown you way too early, and then they jump on and kill ya. So he’s getting way too much attention and way too much credit, and he’s going to struggle, and they’re going to say ‘He’s not as good, he’s overrated!’ It’s coming, everybody knows it.”

Talk isn’t going to go down. It could only escalate once the regular season kicks off. But as far as Arch Manning’s NFL future is concerned, 2026 may not be the year for him.