“There’s an infectious leadership that he has, that I don’t want to say is unintentional, because he intentionally leads”. Arch Manning’s hype is real, and even Steve Sarkisian knows that, hence the statement. It’s not that the QB is just famous due to his ‘Manning’ name. Of course, it’s partly true, but when you look at the quality young Arch offers, the hype bandwagon gets loaded with even more expectations. But with expectations come scrutiny. And this time? Well, Texas fans have some Kool-Aid ready, since it’s going to be brutal.

Coming in the 2023 season as a five-star rated quarterback, Arch Manning was a near-perfect 100-rated QB. Moreover, he was coming back from his high school career, in which he produced 8,539 yards at a 64.5% completion rate. But the hype? It was always there to begin with. The Manning name was showing its weight, and Arch Manning finally landed in Texas after an intense recruitment battle for him. However, considering the QB room in Texas, starting experience still became elusive. But after two years of waiting behind Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning has finally gotten his chance. But will he make the most of it and be the Heisman contender as analysts predict him to be?

Jake Wimberly of CFB Hourglass sat with Mike in the May 17th episode of ‘That SEC Podcast’ and gave a grim verdict on the Texas QB, even sinking all Heisman odds. Mike started by asking Jake a simple question concerning his latest prediction about Arch Manning. “Your Hourglass also ranks the quarterbacks, and you got Arch at number four?” The question was valid and for several reasons, but the main being the metric Jake used to assess QBs, Mike even followed it up. “Your model relies heavily on production, right? So the sample size is small, and we know he’s an elite talent. He was an elite five-star recruit, right?”. But Jake patiently provided his reasoning behind putting Arch at number 4.

Well, Arch Manning’s brilliance is undeniable, and we saw that last season. Apart from producing 939 passing and 108 rushing yards, his performance in the two games in the absence of Ewers was top-notch. The QB started against UTSA and played a major role against Louisiana-Monroe, putting in incredible performances to lead Texas to victory by 56-7 and 51-3, respectively. The games showed Arch’s prowess behind the center as he led the team to a win in the next game, too, against Mississippi State, producing 325 yards. Now imagine the same talent, preparing as QB1 with the offensive players and being the starter? It looks monstrous, right?

Not if you ask Jake Wimberley, who picked Arch behind John Mateer, Garrett Nussmeier, and Diego Pavia. “I mean, we can’t base these quarterbacks on hype. So, yes, Arch Manning is number four on the list. And you can see if you go to the list, there are articles on this out there. 18.5 for Arch, that’s just the number that he lands at. Whereas John Mateer, number one, in the SEC for me at Oklahoma, 27.2…So, yes, to answer your question, the production, and I will do as diligently as I can, to update quarterback rankings in the SEC every week.” The verdict makes sense, too.

Update or not, the verdict is clear from Jake that Arch is bested by 3 QBs, including Diego Pavia, coming from an unranked Vanderbilt team. But to be honest, if you watched Diego Pavia’s tape last season, he was just breathtaking. Not only did the QB produce 2,293 passing yards and 800 rushing yards, but turned up against big teams. The QB produced 160 yards against Georgia Tech last year and won the game by 35-27. And who can forget his performance against the mighty Alabama? The guy literally became a giant slayer as he produced 252 yards to cap off a win by 40-35. So yes, if you compare Arch’s inexperience to Diego Pavia and even other QBs like John Mateer, young Arch fell short after removing hype from the picture. But Jake wasn’t the only one who had reservations about Arch Manning.

More woes for Arch Manning?

The major issue with Arch Manning right now is, he has the hype, the north of $6 million NIL value, and has the talent. But when you talk about actual on-field performances? Well, we haven’t seen enough to judge him on that. But even then, we see analysts, fans, and even Steve Sarkisian himself hyping up the QB. Majorly because of his Manning name, and that’s why a former Texas coach cautioned people on riding that hype-bogey.

Les Koenning, the 2014 WRs coach at Texas, urged fans to let Arch perform and then give the verdict. The host asked the coach. “Do you feel like he has some of those intangibles you talked about based on what you’ve seen from him?” The coach replied, “We’ll soon find out. I mean, I think you can’t put the cart before the horse…We can talk about it. We can hype it up. We can do everything we want to, but it’s going to come down to performance.”

Well, the verdict is apt, since Texas has signaled is reported to spend $40 million on its roster. The O-line is looking well-oiled, and the WRs like Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone are returning. Moreover, the incoming transfers like Cole Brevard, Hero Kanu, and Travis Shaw are looking to take up that mantle in defense. But, focusing on a player who hasn’t yet been a regular starter? Quite futile, right? Let us know your bet on Manning.