Is there a better comeback story than Texas and Arch Manning right now? After featuring a career-high 346 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi State, followed by 328 yards and three more scores versus Vanderbilt, Arch has powered the Longhorns (7–2) to the No. 5 spot in the SEC. The golden boy of Texas is now turning the unthinkable into reality.

Once left off the list entirely, Manning has climbed to No. 18 in CBS Sports’ Top 50 QB Power Rankings this week. A remarkable turnaround for both him and the Longhorns. His rise has also pulled Texas back into the AP Poll mix, jumping from No. 13 to No. 10 despite having a bye week. That jump is nearly unheard of, as CFB writer Brian Davis pointed out on X. “What Texas has done in the AP Top 25 poll this season is historical. I cannot find another instance of a preseason No. 1 team falling totally out of the poll then bouncing back to the top 10 during the regular season.” wrote Davis.

The comeback continued in the US LBM Coaches Poll, where Texas also rose three spots to No. 10, now tied with rival Oklahoma. CBS Sports credited much of that surge to Manning’s leadership, writing, “Manning’s meteoric rise this week is a nod to his steady performance in a desperately needed win over a top-10 Vanderbilt team…The redshirt sophomore is blossoming at the right time.” 

Despite having early inconsistencies and struggling with accuracy against MS State, he posted a career-high 346 yards. In that game, he completed 29 of 476 passes. Following that, Manning had another 300-yard passing day in a 34-31 win over Vanderbilt. Against the Commodores, he made a 75-yard TD strike to Ryan Wingo, instantly setting the tone for Texas’ offense, and racked up 328 yards. To cap it off, he threw 25 of 33 passes with 3 TDs.

With back-to-back strong displays, it may seem the Heisman dream isn’t that far, as he has +2500 odds on BetMGM. With that, while the preseason Heisman favorite remains in the top 20, the latest revelation about the Texas weapon around him suggests his chances may be slim.

Arch Manning’s Heisman chances

Against MS State, although the Longhorns were down by 17 entering the fourth, Arch Manning flipped the script. He led a furious rally that included Ryan Niblett’s electric punt return TD, but made one interception and also absorbed 5 sacks. Still, he managed to secure a victory for Texas. On Nightcap, Chad Ochocinco Johnson reflected the same, “He’s getting better and better. A little bit more consistent.” But co-host Shannon Sharpe wasn’t ready to crown him as the Heisman contender.

He stated, “Arch got a big victory, but they’re not out of the woods yet.” With a shaky O-line and an inconsistent run game, Texas’s offense is still finding rhythm. Now, as Georgia looms, the Longhorns’ path only gets steeper, and Manning’s Heisman chances can slip fast.

On Sunday’s appearance on Nightcap, Johnson revealed the reason for that, referring to their next game against Georgia. “I think if, if Texas has any chance, you know, it comes down to, comes down to the quarterback play.” But the QB can only do so much without its safety blanket. Johnson raised similar concerns about Texas’ poor offensive line. “The receivers on the outside haven’t stood out enough for me to make a difference in the game. There’s no, ain’t no Ja’Marr Chase. There’s no Justin Jefferson. There’s no CeeDee Lamb.”

“I mean nobody for them has popped out to me, you know, that can just take a game over,” added Johnson. Agreeing with the poor protection of Manning, Sharpe echoed the same sentiment, saying, “He’s going to have to play. They going to have to keep him.” So if the O-line doesn’t adjust, Manning will be under heavy pressure against Georgia. If that happens, Texas could be staring at another loss this season with Manning’s Heisman hopes flickering in the process.