Nobody had better Heisman odds entering this season than Arch Manning (+650). Peyton Manning’s nephew had Paul Finebaum and other analysts saying he was the best quarterback prospect since forever, or at least since Tim Tebow. In Week 1 of college football, Ohio State ruined those Heisman odds early by beating Texas, which pushed Arch Manning’s odds from +650 to +1600. It didn’t stop there. Fast forward a few weeks, Arch Manning was labeled one of the worst signal-callers in the SEC until the concussion entered the picture.

Arch Manning’s 2025 season has been a rollercoaster. The former 5-star went from Heisman favorite to so-called pretender within weeks. Through the first five games, he completed just 60% of his passes for 1,158 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. This rough start caused his Heisman odds to plummet again, dropping all the way to +25000 (per BetMGM).

It also pushed Texas out of the AP Poll for a minute. It was a humbling time, especially after putting up great numbers in limited action the year before: over 960 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Fans even started petitioning to bench Manning for backup Matthew Caldwell. He had to tune out the naysayers and focus on playing football, which is easier said than done when you’re a Manning at Texas.

But, boy, has he turned the narrative around. Arch Manning finally started playing like the preseason Heisman hype again in the second half of the season. In the overtime thriller against Mississippi State, he threw for a career-high 346 yards and three touchdowns, completing 29-of-46 passes.

Despite being taken out of a game with concussion protocol, Arch Manning doubled down and played even better against a 1-loss Vanderbilt team. He threw 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns. He even threw a 75-yard touchdown on the very first play of the game. Within a few weeks, Arch Manning beat two top-10-ranked teams in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. That win had SEC officials give him SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Those two games alone put up 674 passing yards and seven total touchdowns, showing he’s back and more confident than ever.

But it might have been too late for NIL to notice. The early-season dip slowed new opportunities and affected his market value. Arch entered the season with the highest NIL package in college sports at nearly $6.5 million. When the team struggled and his Heisman odds tanked, the big-money deals stopped flowing. His NIL value has dipped to about $4.8-ish million as of today. His last NIL deal came in August with the sunglasses brand Warby Parker. It shows how much a player’s on-field success controls their brand and wallet in the NIL era.

Arch Manning’s priority list for the rest of the season

Arch Manning’s season proves that hype can be a double-edged sword. He went from a preseason star with unreal expectations, to a mid-season question mark, and now, a resilient leader on a serious hot streak. His numbers are climbing fast, currently sitting at 2,123 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions this season. In all honesty, the Heisman still feels like a distant dream at +25000 odds.

It’s pretty egregious to put him above the likes of Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson, and Diego Pavia. However, missing out on the Heisman is not the end of the road for Arch Manning or Texas. The Longhorns are now 7-2 and are still praying for a natty run after back-to-back semifinal appearances.

The best thing Arch Manning can do now is dominate the next three games against No. 6 ranked Georgia, Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas, and No. 3 ranked undefeated Texas A&M, to push Texas toward an SEC Championship Game berth and an automatic playoff entry (only if one-loss teams like Georgia, Ole Miss, or Alabama slip in the final stretch of the season). As for the Heisman, Arch still has another year of eligibility left.