Arch Manning is not only shaping the Texas future on fire; he’s in the talks of being the next guy in the NFL as well. The 21-year-old, a lifelong Texas fan who came from rooting for the burnt orange from the other side of the fences to being their favorite hope to hold on to, is an awe-inspiring prospect to develop. Of course, he’ll always be connected to his last name. Archie Manning, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and now we have Arch. But it’s his skill set and the burning passion to push all the limits that made him an early NFL buzz. But is his spot really as locked as it seems? Well, only if Fernando Mendoza, the new Hoosiers sensation, takes a back seat.

Manning capped off with 67.8 percent of his pass attempts for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2024. He also ran for 108 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Arch has been that splash that Texas was looking for when Quinn Ewers showcased inconsistency under center. But when Arch stepped up as the starter in games like Mississippi State and UL Monroe, fans found their next poster boy. However, his stint as the Horns starter might be shortened if the NFL buzz turns out to be true.

DraftKings Sportsbook deems him as the No. 1 pick of the 2026 draft. Arch has the genes, the supreme talent, the fiery will, and the early stats to back up this claim. If Texas wins the championship, it will set him in a more solidified position to lead the draft chart. However, a looming threat seems to brew up in the form of Fernando Mendoza, a former California product, who topped the QB rankings in a 2026 NFL Draft big board. “The combination of arm talent, smarts, and a situation that’s palpably better puts Mandoza in a pole position, at least for me, as the race for QB1 in the 2026 NFL draft begins,” Nate Tice dropped a shell-shattering remark

Nate has also been a fan of Mandoza’s high football IQ, which gives him an edge in the smorgasbord scheme. His numbers very well speak of the legitimacy of all the hype he’s getting. The former Golden Bears QB racked up 4,712 yards across two seasons.

However, it’s pretty unlikely for Manning to even be in the conversation, as most of the analysts are tanking for him for 2027. Arch had only two stars under his belt, and that too against mediocre teams. So, to make his momentum more obvious, he needs to build a strong starting resume before the scouts check in.

However, even if not the NFL, the first-year collegiate stint as a starter seems to be a bit of a gamble for him and his coach.

Can Arch Manning be the star Texas bets a dime on? 

Steve Sarkisian looks to Arch to be the breakout star at Austin. But he knows that the path is not easy. As Arch’s father, Cooper Manning fears fans will be impatient with him. The bloodline is one reason; the flash of brilliance so far is another. Sarkisian made it clear that the people outside the building weren’t going to let go of his early errors that easily. Although his team will be there by his side, he has to fight against some imposed negativity and stand tall regardless. Arch doesn’t fear a daunting challenge. But he has some limitations to pay heed to.

“The tools are all there, man. 6’4” and 220 lbs… is what he’s listed on the school website. I am guessing he’s every bit that big. When you watch how strong his base is in the pocket and the way he throws with that strong base! I mean, he’s shaking off grown men at times,” says Steve Muench during the Todd McShay show.

On the other hand, Muench sees some sloppy stones. “I want him to run more this year. I want him to make more plays with his feet. Now I don’t want him to turn into a guy who’s always running,” added the analyst. It will be worth holding your breath to see Arch proving all the critics wrong and shining bright in that wholesome orange gear.