Arch Manning’s return to Texas after an erratic 2025 season was the most logical thing to do. His inconsistent throws made the Longhorns’ offense much less fatal to their rivals. Manning surely made significant strides at the end of the season. However, recent data about his short-range passes mirrors the profiles of undrafted free agents. These are not good optics for a formerly projected No. 1 draft pick.

According to recent data by Adam Carter, Arch Manning is one of the P4 quarterbacks since 2012 with a short area (1-9 yards) accuracy rate < 50% in their best season. In that chart, Manning’s accuracy range stands at 47.6%. Christian Hackenberg comes second with the same problem of inaccurate passes as Manning before the 2016 NFL draft declaration.

Manning started his freshman season as a future No. 1 overall pick. Even Manning didn’t disappoint anyone in 2024 when he took charge of the offense while Quinn Ewers was down due to an injury. During that time, he was statistically elite in this range, posting a 92% adjusted completion percentage on throws of 0–9 yards, which ranked #1 in the SEC among qualified QBs.

However, both for Hackenberg and Manning, the problem started during their sophomore and junior seasons. Hackenberg’s stock plummeted during those seasons because of inconsistent play and poor mechanics under the new coaching staff. The New York Jets eventually selected him 51st overall in the second round. Similarly, Manning’s 2025 season (sophomore) didn’t go as planned.

Manning often used a sidearm motion on short throws near the line of scrimmage, which caused him to miss cleanly and throw balls at his receivers’ feet. For example, during the season opener against OSU, during a critical 3rd and 5, Manning attempted a short pass to Ryan Wingo, which was incomplete. Then, Anthony Richardson stands as another example, but his outcome was a bit different.

Richardson also entered the 2023 NFL draft as a late first-round pick. Apart from his erratic short-range throws, Richardson was pretty raw, starting only 13 games. However, his insane NFL combine performance made his draft stock reach its peak. During the event, Richardson set QB records for the vertical jump (40.5 inches) and tied the record for broad jump (10’9″). It eventually led the Colts to select him 4th overall.

Sefo Liufau’s situation is what fuels the fear for Manning. Despite setting 99 school records at Colorado, Liufao entered the 2017 NFL draft as a projected 7th-round pick or a priority undrafted free agent. Invitations to the combine and the Senior Bowl came his way, but he failed to make his mark. In the end, he went undrafted.

But this particular statistic profiles the ‘best’ season of each of these quarterbacks. And because Arch Manning has had only one full season under his belt, the sample size (1 season) for Manning is small. So while Manning’s stats mirror those of a UDFA, he still has a shot at improving those in the 2026 season.

Manning has solidified his stock with a standout performance in the Citrus Bowl victory over Michigan. Manning contributed four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing), including a 60-yard touchdown run. However, the criticisms of the Texas QB and this year’s NFL draft are all over the CFB fraternity. Former QBs like Cam Newton also became a part of this when he made Arch Manning the scapegoat for his decision to return.

Cam Newton’s frustration with Arch Manning’s absence in the 2026 NFL draft

While most people are busy crowning Fernando Mendoza as the jewel of the 2026 NFL Draft, Cam Newton is disappointed by Arch Manning’s absence.

“This is the absolute worst quarterback draft class in the last two decades,” Newton said on the 4th & 1 with Newton podcast on March 4. “You want to know who’s to blame? Arch Manning.”

Newton explicitly wanted Manning to do better because he wanted him to be on par with Fernando Mendoza.

“He was supposed to be. What Arch Manning was supposed to be was everything that Fernando Mendoza was.”

Being the grandson of Archie Manning and the nephew of Eli and Peyton Manning comes with a cost.

“This is not a beat on Arch Manning not being a good football player,” said Newton. “This debate is about Arch Manning not developing fast enough to be what everybody, including myself, expected him to be… You’ve got all these different quarterbacks, and it’s like, ‘Okay. I don’t really see any franchise quarterbacks.’”

Basically, Cam Newton wants every other QB to develop as fast as he did. Newton declared for the 2011 NFL Draft after he achieved every quarterback goal: he won the 2010 Heisman, led Auburn to a 14–0 record and a national championship, and the Carolina Panthers drafted him No. 1 overall. Fernando Mendoza might do this, maybe even better, if he goes No. 1. Concerns about Arch Manning were glaring because the 2025 season marked his first full year as QB1, and heavy expectations burdened the Texas quarterback.