After two years in the shadows, Arch Manning is finally stepping into the light as Texas’s starting quarterback for 2025. Longhorn Nation is buzzing, and for good reason. The numbers don’t lie—90 completions on 61% passing, 939 yards, nine touchdowns in limited snaps last season. Archie balled his heart out in a clutch moment. Expectations are high as Texas sky in Year 2. But here’s the catch: the window? It’s narrow. Steve Sarkisian’s best shot at winning a natty might be right now—while Arch is still cheap. Because when Arch leaves—likely for the NFL in 2026—the comfy rookie-deal era will vanish, and the next guy? God forbid.

On the May 14 episode of That SEC Football Podcast, SEC Mike didn’t sugarcoat a thing. “I like the way they attacked it in the spring to shore up any additional deficiencies to let them know you know where they need to be strong going into year two in the SEC..speaking of—Rusty, you know—I think he was the one that said it’s almost like Arch Manning’s on that rookie contract. You gotta get the most out of it, ’cause he’s making money from Texas, he’s making money from all the huge NIL offers he’s got. Whoever the next quarterback is at Texas—it ain’t gonna be a Manning.”

Translation: The Longhorns aren’t paying full freight for Arch. NIL deals like Red Bull, Panini America, and Uber are footing that bill. On3 values Arch’s NIL at $6.6 million—highest in college football. But that isn’t Texas dollars. That’s luxury tax someone else is eating. And that’s why Texas is stacking bodies all over the field—Cal tight end Jack Endries, linebacker Brad Spence, wideout Emmett Mosley V, D-linemen Travis Shaw, Hero Kanu, Cole Brevard… hell, even punter Jack Bouwmeester got the call. It’s the Brock Purdy treatment: go all-in while the QB price tag is light.

Look, once Arch bounces? The next QB’s gonna be asking for a whole suitcase of zeroes. Cousin Shane said: “Lot of zeros. Hell, they’re so cheap in that department they went out and got another quarterback.” So, whoever comes after Arch isn’t coming cheap. You think another blue-chip five-star gun-slinger is gonna roll up and say, ‘Pay me in compliments’? Nah. It’ll be bags on bags. Whoever steps into the QB1 role in 2026 or 2027 won’t be riding in on a Manning discount. He’ll come with demands. And a price tag.

Right now, Arch is basically Texas’ Brock Purdy. High value, low cost, championship window wide open. Unlike Kyle Shanahan, Steve Sarkisian gotta win with Arch. This window isn’t staying open forever. Once he declares for the draft, the game changes. And Steve Sarkisian knows it.

Arch Manning’s weapons for big 2025

Now, let’s talk ammo. Because if Arch is going to fire up that Heisman hype train, he’s gonna need a serious arsenal. Gone are Gunner Helm, Isaiah Bond, and Matthew Golden. That’s a lotta catches, a lotta routes, and a lotta third-down safety blankets headed for Sundays. But there’s reason for optimism, because Texas reloaded with actual boom.

Wideouts like Johntay Cook, DeAndre Moore, and the Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V bring a high-upside blend of speed, hands, and route polish. Noah Livingstone might be the sleeper of the bunch—raw but reminds folks of what Wingo brought last year: size, bounce, and that twitch. Speaking of Wingo, he’s still here. And he’s scary.

At tight end? Jackpot. Jack Endries might be TE1 by committee, but he isn’t sharing long. PFF ranks him the #2 returning tight end in the country. That’s a straight-up cheat code for Sark’s system. They’ll run 12 personnel like a fever dream. Last season, Texas folded at the worst possible time. Remember that Ohio State playoff meltdown? Goal-line stand. Couldn’t punch it in. No QB run threat. No power back. Just vibes and prayers.

This year? That inside run game should finally have some bite. The G-C-G trio looks solid, stronger, meaner, and more aggressive downhill. CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner are back with a little more grown-man weight. If that power game develops, Arch can keep it vanilla and still move chains.

All signs point to one thing: Sarkisian is pushing all his chips into the center of the table for 2025. Arch Manning is the best bargain in college football. The offensive pieces are fresh, deep, and ready to roll. But there’s no hiding from the truth—when Arch leaves, so does Texas’ luxury tax loophole.

The next QB won’t be a Manning. He’ll be a businessman. And that natty window? It’s closing with every snap.