Texas was supposed to ride Arch Manning’s arm back into national title contention, with Steve Sarkisian eyeing a third straight playoff run. Instead, that promise has already faded more into the abyss as a prominent ESPN analyst has ranked Arch quite low in his rankings, while other analysts have cast doubts on Texas’s playoff hopes. Texas ranks just 64th in passing offense with 944 yards and 37th in rushing with 811. Those numbers look even worse considering they’ve faced only one ranked opponent in four games. The drop-off isn’t all on Arch Manning, but his role in the regression is hard to ignore.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his latest ‘Power 4’ QB rankings and placed Arch Manning at the 41st position nationally. Jayden Maiava on his list grabs the top spot, with a QB rating of 93.4, while Diego Pavia seals the second spot, followed by the breakthrough prodigy, Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss. As for Arch Manning, apart from getting the 41st spot in the country, the Texas QB1 is 12th best in the SEC, which is concerning for Texas’s SEC championship hopes. Bill Connelly, however, left room for adjustment for Arch.

“It almost looks like paralysis by analysis for Manning. He has been raised as a perfect quarterback specimen and knows every passing angle, and he seems to freeze up while considering what to do sometimes…Texas’ defense will buy him development time, and things could click at any moment, but they haven’t yet,” wrote Connelly in his take. Arch Manning’s numbers aren’t even SEC championship caliber, let alone for a natty run.

For instance, the young QB is ranked 100th in interception rate, giving away 2.8% of interceptions, while sitting 96th nationally in completion rate. The QB’s release time in the SEC is below expected, as he takes 3.1 seconds to throw passes, making it the seventh highest in the country. Surely, all of it could have been some rookie mistakes, and with time, Arch could correct the errors.

We saw some of that against Sam Houston, albeit a G-5 team, where Arch passed for 309 yards, completing 18 of the 21 passes. His ground game, too, was drastically improved as he notched up two touchdowns on the ground. That said, Arch’s regression has led a prominent analyst to dampen Texas’s playoff hopes and SEC championship title hopes.

Texas’s defense is the only hope for saving Arch Manning’s season

Texas under Steve Sarkisian has reached unparalleled success, making it to two consecutive playoffs with Quinn Ewers under center. However, despite that, some issues for Steve Sarkisian persist, ranging from red-zone predictable play calling to offensive line cohesion. Moreover, penalties have been a major issue for the team this season, as the team sits 127th nationally. Those numbers, along with QB regression, don’t get you Nattys or SEC championships, and that’s what Eric Henry of Horns247 echoed after he appeared on Jox 94.5 podcast.

“We were asked to kind of redo our SEC prediction, SEC schedule for the site. I have Texas at 9 and 3. I think they’ll lose to Georgia, and the other game I have them losing is when they host Texas A&M, right? So, the expectations change in terms of, you know, wins and losses by one game,” said Eric Henry. The only way the analyst predicted the team to reach the SEC championship in Atlanta or the playoffs is through their defense. “If they are going to reach Atlanta again, I think it’s going to be on the backs of this defense,” announced the analyst.

Texas’ defense is the only bright spot so far in the season for the team. The team ranks 4th nationally in total defense, giving away just 844 total yards. The rushing defense and the D-line, too, have been phenomenal, and have conceded just 59.75 yards per game, ranked 3rd nationally. In that sense, the next game in Week 6 against the Gators would be a major test for Arch Manning, and if he fails again to perform, then defense would be the only hope for Steve Sarkisian. Moreover, with a 9-3 finish as Eric Henry predicted, it would be incredibly tough for Texas to even make the playoffs.