Arizona State might be on the verge of learning a hard truth about modern college football: loyalty has a price, and a Big 12 rival may be willing to pay it. After two years of leading the Sun Devils’ offense, Sam Leavitt has informed Arizona State that he plans to enter the transfer portal when it opens on Jan. 2. In the NIL-heavy transfer era, the decision has sparked speculation around financial flexibility and long-term roster stability, areas ASU is reportedly reluctant to stretch.

What makes the situation even more intriguing is that Texas Tech isn’t just another suitor; it’s a direct Big 12 rival. If Leavitt ultimately lands in Lubbock, Arizona State could be staring at the uncomfortable reality of facing its former quarterback in conference play, with NIL resources and roster stability that ASU itself was unwilling to match.

“(Texas) Tech’s outstanding portal performance a year ago shows they could make this work and potentially tighten their deadlock on the Big 12,” reported Sports Illustrated’s Joe Cox, speculating Texas Tech as a potential landing spot.

Texas Tech checks nearly every box for Sam Leavitt. The program can offer him a lucrative NIL deal, owing to the Red Raiders’ reported $28 million investment in their 2025 roster. Leavitt would also be stepping into an offense built to maximize quarterback efficiency, one that leaned heavily on tempo, spacing, and downfield reads, traits that align closely with his skill set at ASU. Factor in that Leavitt’s top receiver, Jordyn Tyson, has declared for the NFL draft, and Leavitt will have every reason to switch camps.

Texas Tech’s portal aggression isn’t new. Joey McGuire has leaned heavily on transfers to accelerate roster rebuilds, prioritizing proven college production over long-term development. That approach helped stabilize the Red Raiders quickly and made a plug-and-play quarterback like Leavitt an especially attractive target.

“According to a school source, Miami and Texas Tech have emerged as two potential destinations for Leavitt,” reported The Athletic. Texas Tech is losing QB1 Behren Morton, in his last year of eligibility, and Joey McGuire would most likely explore the portal for a long-term replacement. Leavitt also has two years of eligibility, and that could enable the head coach to plan for the long term. Currently, though, nothing is written in stone.

That also includes Leavitt returning to the program, as the portal window has not yet opened. “That’s not where things are right now…he’s still deciding what he wants to do,” said Leavitt’s brother Dallin when asked whether Leavitt will return or not. For now, speculations are at an all-time high, and it remains to be seen where the QB lands. Texas Tech appears to be the most plausible option given its roster stability and NIL capabilities.

The Red Raiders can also provide him with elite protection, which ASU couldn’t do. Leavitt was sacked 19 times in the season, and the O-line has been leaky throughout. For ASU, the situation would be similar to when Jayden Daniels transferred in 2022 to LSU and won the Heisman. A familiar cautionary tale for the program, one that still lingers among the fanbase.

For a quarterback coming off surgery, protection matters as much as pay. Texas Tech’s offensive line allowed fewer pressures per dropback than ASU last season, and the program has consistently invested in veteran linemen through the portal, a major selling point for any quarterback weighing long-term durability.

Sam Leavitt’s transfer portal speculations fuel NIL surge

Sam Leavitt had a $1.7 million NIL value when he decided to enter the transfer portal. His NIL valuation remained unchanged for two to three days, but now Leavitt has gained $299k more to his NIL value. Leavitt’s current valuation stands at a whopping $2.1 million after an increase of 17 percent. Those existing partnerships help anchor his rising NIL valuation.

The sudden jump in Leavitt’s NIL valuation is less about opportunism and more about leverage. Quarterbacks with Power Five starting experience, postseason résumés, and multiple years of eligibility are rare in the portal, and the market tends to respond quickly when one becomes available.

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In August, ASU’s #17 inked an NIL deal with Adidas along with WR Jordyn Tyson. Powerade signed the QB, around the same time, along with others like Garrett Nussmeier. The Portland, Oregon, native also has other deals with the Sun Angel Collective of ASU and Cold Beers and Cheeseburgers. He also has a deal with the Jones Ford Verde Valley. But Leavitt’s growth in valuation is largely attributed to the quality that the QB brings into the offense.

Leavitt passed for 1,628 yards this season despite playing just 7 games. Last year, the QB was the major reason for ASU’s playoff run, passing 2,885 yards. Add in 816 career rushing yards, and Leavitt profiles as a fit for virtually any offense. All of that, despite the QB being out after a season-ending injury, which required surgery.

For Leavitt, the next two weeks could define the trajectory of his career. Whether it’s Texas Tech, Miami, or a surprise entrant, the combination of NIL resources, protection, and competitive stability will likely outweigh familiarity. And if Texas Tech ultimately wins the sweepstakes, Arizona State may be left watching one of its own thrive in rival colors.