Arch Manning finally got the keys in Austin after Quinn Ewers took his rocket arm and that ridiculous mullet to the NFL. The 21-year-old, blue-blooded, triple-legacy QB is set to lead Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns into the SEC jungle in 2025. But that might not even be the biggest story. Word on the street? A $4.4 billion NFL franchise is sniffing. Hard.

Derek Carr dipped. The $4.4 billion New Orleans Saints just lost their QB to a degenerative shoulder injury, and now? The whole city is looking like it’s about to throw a second-line parade straight into ‘Tank for Arch’ season. Problem is… Arch Manning’s future. And if history tells us anything, the Mannings don’t play by anybody’s script but their own. So while Who Dat Nation is out here printing No. 10 jerseys already, the QB might just hit them with the stiff arm and stay in Austin.

See, Derek Carr officially called it quits this weekend. Eleven NFL seasons, one Pro Bowl, and a shoulder condition so bad it needed surgery just to make it to Week 1. Derek Carr’s shoulder got tired of doing that dance. Respect. And now? It’s lights out under center. Empty. Wide open.

Sure, they spent a second-round pick on Louisville QB Tyler Shough in the 2025 draft. And yeah, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener are technically still on the depth chart. But let’s be real—none of those guys are moving the needle. Between Rattler and Haener, they’re 0-7 as NFL starters. Shough might be a sleeper, but asking a rookie to carry a franchise is dicey, even in a league where C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels just popped off. Most insiders agree: this team is headed toward a rebuild, and a brutal one at that. That’s exactly why they would tank for the Manning. 

But the math’s not hard; the Saints look trashy enough to stumble into a top-2 pick in 2026. And if that happens? Arch Manning’s name is going to be hotter than beignets in July. Archie’s grandson. Isidore Newman alum. He literally grew up in the shadow of the Superdome. You can’t write this stuff. Except… there’s one big catch.

Arch might not go pro in 2026.

The Mannings don’t rush greatness. Ask Peyton. He could’ve gone No. 1 in ‘97. Stayed another year. Eli? Came back for a fifth lap at Ole Miss. And Arch? He’s thrown less than 100 college passes. Sure, he’s got that NIL bag waiting. But this family isn’t hurting for cash. It’s all about reps, growth, and film. “We’d be ignoring family history if we assumed Arch was gonna be in the 2026 draft,” Albert Breer told SI. Word.

And that’s what makes the ‘Tank for Arch’ theory so juicy yet maddening. You can plan for the draft. You can’t plan for the Mannings. Family insiders and league executives are all saying the same thing: don’t count on Arch declaring in 2026 just because the opportunity lines up. He’s more likely to ride the college wave another season, especially with NIL deals that could keep him comfy into 2027. Legacy, not urgency, is what’s guiding his decisions. So what if this team tanks for Arch… and Arch never declares? Which brings us to the Saints’ big ol’ dilemma.

Garrett Nussmeier or Arch Manning: The Saints’ dilemma

So let’s say it plays out like the football gods planned. The Saints get a top pick in 2026. And right there on the board? Two QBs: one from down I-10 and one born into the city’s royal bloodline. Arch Manning vs. Garrett Nussmeier.

The Arch story writes itself. Grandson of Archie. The Mannings’ hometown hero. A high school legend at Isidore Newman. The city would go nuts. Arch walks into the Dome; that place erupts like Bourbon Street. But the thing is, he still has to declare for the 2026 draft. And a lot of folks inside the NFL don’t think that’s a lock. Not after only one full year of starting. Not with the Manning fam preaching patience. But while Saints fans drool over Arch, Doug Nussmeier might be holding the real trump card.

Doug’s the Saints’ offensive coordinator. Garrett Nussmeier’s pops. Garret Nusmeier is fresh off a 29-TD, 12-pick season, led the SEC in completions and attempts, and had Baton Rouge buzzing like crawfish season hit early. He could’ve gone pro this year. Decided to spin the block and run it back in 2025. The word is, Garrett Nussmeier’s planning to have a Jayden Daniels-type of season.

BetMGM got Arch and Nussmeier in a full-on Heisman duel already — Arch with +600 odds, Nussmeier right behind at +800. The hype isn’t fake. And Garrett? He got that dog in him. Pops says so himself. “When you think you’re on top, you’re gonna get brought down real quick,” Doug told The Post. “And when you’re down, keep fighting. That’s how you survive at this position [Quarterback].”

And make no mistake: the Saints are watching both these boys. If Shough flames out early—and let’s be honest, this isn’t exactly a stacked roster—New Orleans might be looking at a juicy top-3 pick. And who’s pulling the strings on offense? Doug Nussmeier. If you don’t think the man might give the front office a wink toward his own flesh and blood, you have not been paying attention to how this league works.

So what if it comes down to this: the prodigal son vs. the coach’s son? For now, it’s all just chess pieces. But by the time the 2025 season ends, one thing’s going to be very clear: the Saints will be back at the draft board, and they might have to pick between family ties and family trees. You couldn’t script it better.