The Big 12 could have a hard time getting more than one team into the College Football Playoff if its top teams lose, while the SEC might still get several teams in, even with a few losses each. CFB analyst Josh Pate thinks the selection committee could pick a three-loss SEC team over a one-loss Big 12 team. That raises a fair question about how the committee will really judge the two conferences.

“It is coming down to a one-loss Big 12 and a three-loss SEC,” Pate said on the latest ESPN’s Bussin’ & Pate On Campus show. “And I’m just going to tell you right now, people can say everything they want to about strength of record, strength of schedule. I would have to see them put a one-loss team over a three-loss team in that playoff. To believe that they would do it. I just find out I don’t believe they do it.”

Pate made his comments while talking with co-host Will Compton, who thinks the SEC could get four teams into the playoff. The Big 12 has a few teams that could keep its case alive. But Compton warned that the conference can’t afford many slip-ups if it wants to stand up to the SEC.

Compton also said the Big 12 could end up with three one-loss teams going into Selection Sunday. If that happens, the conference could have a real shot at getting more than one team in.

“The SEC is going to get four teams in the College Football Playoff,” Compton said. “I’m telling you right now, the Big 12 cannot afford to have a team that has two regular-season losses.”

His argument centers on the SEC’s perceived strength as a conference and the possibility that the selection committee could give its teams the benefit of the doubt when comparing records.

“If you’re arguing against three-loss SEC teams, in my opinion, we’re going to see possibly a one-loss SEC team and then a group, a pool of three-loss SEC teams,” Compton added.

The concern for the Big 12 is that a strong overall season might not be enough if its contenders collect additional losses. Even a conference championship game could complicate matters. A team entering that matchup with one loss could finish with two after a defeat, potentially weakening its position against SEC programs with more losses.

“The Big 12 just cannot slip up if we’re talking about them in totality, with the opportunity to get these one-loss teams in come Selection Sunday,” Compton said.

Now, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah have emerged as solid contenders in the conference race, while Houston and Arizona also have opportunities to improve their playoff chances.

BYU’s path could depend on how it handles its remaining schedule, particularly its road matchup against Utah. An undefeated regular season followed by a conference championship would put the Cougars in a strong position. 

Texas Tech also has an opportunity to strengthen its case. Remaining games against opponents such as Arizona and Oklahoma State could prove important as the Red Raiders pursue a place in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Utah, meanwhile, faces consequential games against BYU and Houston. Avoiding additional losses would be crucial if the Utes hope to remain strong among the conference’s playoff candidates.

The Big 12 has reportedly never put two teams into the College Football Playoff in the same season. Here’s a scenario that could help its case: Texas Tech and Utah meet in the conference championship game, and BYU finishes the regular season with just one loss. That would strengthen the argument for multiple bids. But if one of those teams loses, the conference’s position gets harder.

How Will the Committee decide?

The committee has 13 members, meets weekly to produce rankings, and judges teams on their on-field performance. According to the CFP, it evaluates conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and results against common opponents to separate teams that appear comparable. 

Every committee member weighs things his own way, and that’s what makes Pate’s doubt worth paying attention to. Say the Big 12 team lost once and the SEC team lost three times. The Big 12 side points to the record. The SEC side points to who it played. Whichever one the committee buys, that’s the one that counts.

The strength of schedule and record can matter, but whether they would be enough to put a one-loss Big 12 team ahead of a three-loss SEC team is the real question here. 

However, the idea recently proposed for a 24-team playoff could eventually open up more spots for both conferences. But that is a different topic altogether. For now, the Big 12’s top teams have to keep winning to build their cases, and the SEC, with four possible bids, has more room for teams to slip up along the way.