As we approach the Red River Rivalry, the whole discourse is focused on one question. Will Oklahoma QB John Mateer play this Saturday against Texas? The Sooners’ offensive power has been their standout transfer from Washington State, but three weeks ago, he fractured his hand against Auburn, which has put a stop to that momentum. Norman has been in an endless waiting period ever since he managed to finish the game before undergoing surgery. Mateer is now officially labeled as doubtful to play in the first SEC Availability Report as No. 6 Oklahoma prepares to play unranked Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

Josh Pate may have just revealed the most important clue that John Mateer will play this weekend for Oklahoma vs. Texas. In the recent episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, Pate explained how Mateer’s position was basically leaked by the FanDuel betting line before any official statement was made.

“According to our FanDuel sources, 82% of the against-the-spread wagering in this game is on Oklahoma. And yet, despite all that, Texas is favored,” he said. “We did confirm today that Texas -1.5 is a number that assumes John Mateer starts,” he added. The betting line is simply based on the assumption that Mateer will play.

In fact, Pate continued by outlining the precise extent to which Mateer’s absence could impact the game. “If John Mateer is ruled out of this game, according to our FanDuel sources, you’re looking at Texas -5.5,” he stated. Therefore, FanDuel has two clear options: If Mateer plays, Texas is -1.5; if not, it is -5.5. So, the market’s decision is to settle on the smaller spread, indicating that Mateer will likely take the field on Saturday. Although Brent Venables has not officially announced his injury update, in the world of college football betting, a change of that nature is bigger than any coach’s press conference.

It’s easy to understand why everyone is keeping such a close eye on this line when you consider how important Mateer is to this Oklahoma squad. With 190 rushing yards and five touchdowns in only four games this season, along with 1,215 yards and six touchdowns from his throws, Mateer has been the Sooners’ offensive engine this season.

But if Mateer is unable to play, sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will take over. He just had a three-touchdown performance against Kent State, but the Sooners know that Mateer’s drive can make or break their rhythm. The line has moved to Texas -1 since this video, getting even closer to zero, indicating that analysts view the game as almost equal, which is another indication that John Mateer will play.

The Quarterback mystery: Mateer vs. Manning?

Months ago, the Red River Rivalry was advertised as a matchup between Mateer and Manning, but it is quickly developing into a true quarterback mystery. Arch Manning has struggled more mentally than physically; although he is healthy, he still battles with his rhythm, further carrying the burden of his legendary last name in every game.

But for John Mateer, his body seems to be betraying him. Despite having a great debut SEC season, the Oklahoma QB’s injured hand against Auburn threw everything off balance. Brent Venables is trying to keep things under wraps, stating that Mateer is still “going through his normal protocol” and hasn’t done any “good-on-good” practice work after reportedly “pushing to return” after surgery.

It will be Michael Hawkins Jr.’s turn once more if Mateer is unable to bounce back. Last week, the sophomore filled in his shoes and looked excellent against Kent State, throwing 3 touchdowns in a 44–0 victory. But everyone is aware that Texas is not Kent State. Hawkins does have experience in this rivalry, though, starting with last year’s game when Oklahoma went down 34–3. Although this might be his second shot on the Cotton Bowl stage, it’s difficult to replace Mateer’s leadership skills on the field. His ability to extend plays, balance the offense, and inspire teammates is what has led the Sooners to 5-0.

Speaking of Texas, even though Manning is more popular, his performance has fallen dead short of expectations; he has already thrown five interceptions and is ranked 94th in the country in terms of completion rate. Even against the nation’s sixth-ranked squad, the Longhorns, who are 3-2, still start as -1 favorites. So Vegas is counting on Mateer playing, and they call it a close game, that’s for sure. But that line may quickly shift in Oklahoma’s favor by even points if it is announced that Mateer is ready. And honestly, the Red River Rivalry was meant for clashes like that.