UNC head coach Bill Belichick entered college football with the reputation of a serial winner, having been the head coach with the most Super Bowl wins. However, one year later, the story is entirely different. Heading into his second season, Belichick’s stock has taken such a hit that an average season from him in 2026 would be deemed a success, according to CBS Sports‘ Brad Crawford.

Crawford, on Friday, released a 2026 prediction for the Atlantic Coast Conference. The prediction included each ACC team’s likely win-loss record and game-by-game picks. North Carolina is predicted to have even ACC and overall records: 6-6 and 4-4, respectively.

The wins are expected against East Tennessee, Duke, Syracuse, UConn, Virginia, and NC State, while the losses are expected against TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Louisville. Beyond the prediction, Crawford further explained the reality of Belichick’s situation at North Carolina and why much should not be expected from him.

“After last season’s failure to launch in Bill Belichick’s first campaign, simply getting the Tar Heels back to bowl eligibility would represent tangible progress in this staff’s second year,” Crawford wrote for CBS Sports. “North Carolina’s hire of Bobby Petrino to reconfigure the offense and improve execution will help a program that is still trying to establish the discipline, toughness, and consistency Belichick has demanded since arriving in Chapel Hill. Rebuilding a culture takes time, particularly in today’s transfer portal era.”

“If North Carolina is more competitive in big games, avoids the self-inflicted mistakes that plagued last season and finishes strong, a six-win season becomes a foundation instead of a failure.”

We don’t know which record will make Bill Belichick feel satisfied in the 2026 season. By Belichick’s standards, any goal that doesn’t point toward a championship victory may not be good enough. But he revealed he used a similar approach in the NFL, where he focused on gradual improvements, and the championships came as a result.

He has begun taking steps in the right direction. Notably, the program has a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino. At the same time, they have focused on recruiting, adding better players to their roster. Still, Belichick must stop coaching UNC like an NFL franchise and adapt to college reality. Last season, Belichick faced intense criticism for his approach, which was one of several reasons for the program’s struggles.

The Tar Heels were a disappointment to their fans, who had high expectations for Belichick’s ability to transform the program and deliver a winning record after a 6-7 season in 2024. Unfortunately, he took them further backward, giving them their worst record since 2018. While one might excuse last season’s performance as Belichick’s first, it is quite shocking to see a coach who dominated the professional ranks struggle in college.

Crawford’s other projections

Aside from North Carolina, Crawford also made predictions on other ACC teams. In his projections, Crawford placed only SMU and Miami in the College Football Playoff rankings. Miami was first, while SMU was 10th.

The Hurricanes were projected to finish the regular season undefeated with a 12-0 record. The SMU Mustangs come next with an 11-1 record, with their projected losses to come against Notre Dame. Louisville was lucky enough to have Crawford give them a 9-3 winning record and an 8-1 conference record.

Georgia Tech is quite average on Crawford’s list, with a projected 7-5 regular season record. NC State was predicted to hit a 6-6 overall record and a 4-5 conference record. Duke, Florida State, Pittsburgh, and NC State all had 6-6 regular-season records and are predicted to make it to a bowl game next season.