Billy Napier’s job security is hanging by a thread. If 2024 hadn’t ended the way it did, there’s a good chance he’d be looking at a play-calling job. Before DJ Lagway, the Gators lacked power. Florida was face-down at 4–5, coming off Ls to Miami and Tennessee, and looking like a program lost in the fog. Then Graham Mertz went down, and Lagway arose. The quarterback went 5–1 as a starter, torched SEC defenses, and closed out 2024 with a bowl dub. And suddenly, Sun Belt Billy became a .500+ winning coach. But now? In 2025? He’s facing the ugliest reality yet.

And that reality is spelled: SCHEDULE.

On June 17, College football insider Josh Pate laid it out in simple terms during his namesake show’s ‘Biggest Questions for Every Team’ segment: “I think Florida would be in the top five odds to win the SEC if their schedule was a little bit lighter. I am confident, highly confident, if Florida had Missouri’s schedule, they would be in the top five odds to win the SEC, and they wouldn’t even be in this segment.” He even called Lagway his top QB in the SEC. So what’s the holdup? Simple. That schedule is pure evil.

The 2025 slate isn’t just tough—it’s borderline criminal. After two layups vs. Long Island and South Florida, it’s straight into the gauntlet. Week 3? LSU at Death Valley, at night. Week 4? Miami revenge tour. Then Texas rolls into The Swamp, followed by a visit to College Station to battle Texas A&M. That’s five Power Five monsters in a seven-week window. Blink wrong and Florida’s season could be 2–3 and Napier’s desk cleaned out by mid-October.

And it doesn’t stop there. After a brief breather vs. Mississippi State, it’s Georgia in Jacksonville. You all remember how ugly that got last year. Then Kentucky, then Ole Miss in Oxford, then Tennessee, then FSU. By the end of November, this team might need therapy. Eight ranked-caliber opponents. Only six home games.

But make no mistake—Florida’s not pulling up empty-handed. Josh Pate gave props to the Gators’ big 2025 squad: “Wide receiver plus, running game plus, offensive line plus — there’s a lot to like about them. DJ Lagway, I had him preseason ranked as my number one quarterback in the SEC, so I obviously think that position is a plus. I think the defensive personnel is really good. They’ve got 20 underclassmen who played 200-plus snaps last year. So they’ve got a lot of returning guys who are experienced, and they surged at the right time at the end of the season last year. They saved Napier’s job.” The Gators squad is low-key stacked to the core.

DJ Lagway is back (not 100% though), projected to go ballistic. We’re talkin’ 4,500 yards, maybe 40 TDs. He’s got big-time weapons too: J.Michael Sturdivant and Dallas Wilson on the outside, Montrell Johnson and Jadan Baugh in the backfield. And speaking of Baugh, he tied a school record with five touchdowns against Kentucky.

The O-line? They’re grown men now. Four starters return, and Bryce Lovett rounds it out. Solid as they come. Defensively, this isn’t last year’s soft-serve unit either. Myles Graham, Devin Moore, Jordan Castell, Bruce Thornton—they’re fast, deep, and low-key violent. Florida returns 20 underclassmen who played over 200 snaps. Experience? Check. Depth? Check. Flexibility? Yep—they’re rocking that 4-2-5 look and finally not getting cooked every time someone throws deep.

Josh Pate gave his verdict on Gators: “Look, I don’t think of them as a wild card so much. I’m counting on Florida. I think they’re going to be a really good team this year. It’s just that the schedule is such that their over/under win total’s seven and a half, so I guess they technically classify as a wild card.” But none of it matters if Lagway isn’t upright. And that’s where the real fear kicks in.

The biggest red flag for Billy Napier in 2025

Billy Napier doesn’t just need DJ Lagway to be good — he needs him to be invincible. Because without him? The whole house of cards collapses. We already saw what this team looked like under Graham Mertz—It was ugly.

And when Lagway tweaked his hammy mid-game vs. Georgia last season? Florida looked lost. Lagway was cooking that night. First half? He had Georgia shook. A 43-yard laser to Aidan Mizell had the Dawgs on their heels. Florida was up 10-3. And then — boom. One bad step, a hit from KJ Bolden, and Lagway was clutching his leg like someone unplugged the console mid-game. “If he goes down again,” ESPN’s Greg McElroy said, “Florida faces their worst-case scenario.”

McElroy dropped the hammer on Always College Football: “They have one of the hardest schedules in college football. Last year, they got stronger late. But this year, it might just wear them out.” That’s not just media noise — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has them pegged at 6-6. And that’s with Lagway projected to play.

The concern? He’s still limited in practice. It’s June, sure — plenty of time. But any lingering hamstring issue can be a ticking time bomb. And with this schedule? There’s no room for rest. No soft landings. Every week’s a warzone. Florida opens with two cupcakes, then boom — four straight playoff-caliber matchups. LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M. Then in the 2nd half of the season: Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida State — there’s no such thing as cruise control in Gainesville this year.

The scary part? Napier knows what’s at stake. That locker room is riding with Lagway. They believe. But belief doesn’t stop injuries. And if Lagway so much as limps wrong, Florida’s offense turns into a stalled-out truck on I-75.

Still, there’s a glimmer. DJ Lagway isn’t a typical sophomore. He played grown-man ball last season. Torched Ole Miss, snapped a playoff dream. Built chemistry with his receivers like they were childhood friends. He knows this system. He’s not walking in blind. If he’s healthy — and that’s the $100 million question — Florida can hang with anyone. But that “if” might be the biggest word in the SEC right now.