Billy Napier and Florida went down with a fighting finish of 8-5 last year. This is Napier’s 4 season at Gainesville, making it a pivotal one, and that demands only one thing: improvement. The Gators still haven’t completely fallen out of the consideration of experts. They’re hanging in there. But it is time for Napier to move past his troubles and bring back Florida’s lost glory. But, even with a top QB1 in tow, Napier has major roadblocks that can threaten to derail his energized campaign.

“As rough as things got last year, Billy Napier never lost that team. The players played hard for him,” says The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. The team saw a turnaround partly because of DJ Lagway lighting up the field with his brilliance. But this year, Billy Napier is also coming with a supporting cast that looks good enough to dent opponents. Four of five O-line starters are returning, and Lagway is healthy at the moment. On ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings, Napier jumped up 3 places (No. 14) from the previous list. However, that mediocre point is where most experts are setting the bar for the Gators’ 2025 season.

Urban Meyer, who coached the Gators before Napier took over, expects the same 8-5 finish even this year. The biggest reason behind this prediction is that Florida has the toughest schedule in the CFB, per ESPN. Other units in the team are looking better than last year. But the schedule alone plays a huge factor in Florida’s success.

Meyer gives an “L” to Florida’s games with LSU and Georgia in a June 18 episode of The Triple Option. “The book was written on Florida last year; it was over. They lost early, lost badly. ” Meyer added, reminiscing about the last season. It’ll be tough for Napier to shed the criticism for the Gators’ hit-and-miss arc until the LSU game.

However, Meyer also had a lot of hope in the 2025 team. Like Feldman, he also tipped a hat to the fighting spirit the Gators displayed last season. “That team fought their a— off, man,” he said. He spoke about the Florida vs. FSU matchup, which was a brutal environment for Napier to be in. “Coach Napier, the staff, and the leaders on that team ignored the noise and went out and played their best football at the end of the season. So I think there’s something there right now,” Meyer added further. Fighting spirit aside, the Gators have to hold their cool while also delivering nothing but their best this season to make it to 8 wins at least.

The expectations for Florida are a little mixed right now. That’s probably because Florida still isn’t able to convince experts about the productivity of its team. And Napier has been dealt pretty tough cards for this season with the schedule. CBS Sports expects Florida to make the playoffs, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is predicting a 6-6 turnout, with a 14.5% chance of a playoff spot. Whatever the results say, the main ingredient of Napier’s recipe for success is DJ Lagway.

Billy Napier given tough DJ Lagway verdict

All of these projections are with DJ Lagway in the mix. He is going to be the foundation for Napier in the 2025 season. Fans were given a scare early on when Lagway continued to be absent from spring ball. However, he’s back at Gainesville now, and he’s throwing. The problem is that he is still not back to his ‘DJ Lagway’ level of 2024. To take Florida to better odds, the onus is on Lagway. Sure, he has a great receiving corps to back him and a strong offensive line to protect him. But the core cogwheel of Florida’s machine is DJ Lagway.

6, 8, or a playoff spot—all of that counts with a healthy and brilliant DJ Lagway. Otherwise, Billy Napier will be in for a dark reality. “If [Lagway] goes down again, Florida faces their worst-case scenario,” ESPN’s Greg McElroy said. “They have one of the hardest schedules in college football. Last year, they got stronger late. But this year, it might just wear them out,” he added.

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Stepping into the 2025 season with a still-recovering QB and with the toughest schedule in the group is the biggest headache for Billy Napier at the moment. The Gators start off easy with LIU and South Florida. Then comes their toughest stretch: 2 away games at LSU and Miami back-to-back, followed by Texas, and then an away game at Texas A&M. Meyer predicted a loss for LSU, and a 0.5 situation for the rest. Currently, LSU and Texas look like a team that can brutally damage the Gators.

The only upside is that DJ Lagway is a man who is capable of casting a spell with his game. Quarterbacks like him don’t come every day. And, he’s now a seasoned CFB QB who plays in the toughest conference. Lagway knows the stakes, and so does Billy Napier. The duo will be tasked with keeping every possible danger at bay, so that the Gators have as effortless of a season as possible.