The 12-team College Football Playoff has turned into a bit of mental math for SEC programs. It’s making things super interesting, especially for a big-name program like Alabama. The problem is that only three SEC teams can realistically make the playoffs.

Mike Elko’s Texas A&M has essentially locked up one spot. That automatically leaves two more. With BYU creating problems on the horizon, the question becomes: can Bama make it?

Essentially, the new rules stipulate that five spots are automatically allocated to the highest-ranked conference champions. That means the champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12, plus the best team from the smaller conferences (G5), all receive guaranteed playoff tickets, regardless of their record.

Here’s where BYU and Alabama’s paths could cross in a way that’s bad for the Tide.

Alabama, currently ranked No. 10, is competing for one of the seven “at-large” spots remaining after the conference champions secure their automatic bids. If BYU, sitting right behind them at No. 11, wins the Big 12 championship game against Texas Tech, the Cougars would automatically lock up their playoff spot.

Mind you, it won’t be a straightforward game for BYU, as Tech already beat them earlier this month. But if BYU wins, that’s one at-large spot gone – one less seat at the table for a team like Alabama.

For Alabama to make the playoff, it first needs to beat the heck out of Auburn this weekend in the Iron Bowl. That would get them to 7-1 in the SEC, alongside Ole Miss and Georgia. From there, they would control their own destiny and lock in a spot in the championship game in Atlanta.

A big reason for that is that Alabama holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia. In a potential three-way tie with Ole Miss and Georgia, Alabama would be in a position to advance because of its strength-of-conference-opponent schedule.

However, things become significantly more complicated if Alabama loses the SEC title game to a higher-ranked team, such as Texas A&M. A third loss would severely damage their playoff résumé. It’s a must win scenario that could go either way.

As a result, the committee might lean toward more deserving teams.

What if Bama loses the SEC championship game?

BYU winning their conference championship and securing an automatic spot could push other teams up in the rankings, such as their Big 12 championship opponent, over-stacked Texas Tech.

In that situation, the playoff committee would easily put No. 6-ranked Ole Miss and No. 4-ranked Georgia Bulldogs over a three-loss Alabama. Even then, the two-loss Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech has a better shot than Bama to make the playoffs.

This entire scenario is a perfect example of how the new playoff format has completely shifted the dynamic of college football over the last two years.

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Alabama, the team that missed the playoffs last year, now has to worry about the Big 12 championship game. For Crimson Tide fans, the goal is no longer just about winning, but also about needing some luck from other conferences and the College Football Playoff committee.