The 12-team College Football Playoff has turned into a bit of mental math for SEC programs, and it’s making things super interesting, especially for a big-name program like Alabama. The problem is, only three SEC teams can realistically make the playoff. Mike Elko’s Texas A&M basically locked one spot up, which leaves two more, and with BYU creating problems on the horizon, the question becomes: can Bama make it?

Basically, the new rules say that five spots automatically go to the highest-ranked conference champions. That means the champs from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12, plus the best of the smaller conferences (G5), all get guaranteed playoff tickets, no matter what their record looks like.

Here’s where BYU and Alabama’s paths could cross in a way that’s bad for the Tide. Alabama, who’s currently ranked No. 10, is playing for one of the seven “at-large” spots that are left over after the conference champions get their free pass. If BYU, sitting right behind them at No. 11, wins the Big 12 championship game against Texas Tech, the Cougars would automatically walk into a playoff spot.

Mind you, it won’t be an easy game for BYU since they already got whooped by Tech earlier this month.But if BYU wins, that’s one at-large spot gone – one less seat at the table for a team like Alabama.

For Alabama to make the playoff, they first need to beat the heck out of Auburn this weekend in Iron Bowl. That would get them to 7-1 in the SEC, alongside Ole Miss and Georgia. From there, they would control their own destiny and lock in a spot in the championship game in Atlanta.

A big reason for that is that Alabama holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia. In a potential three-way tie with Ole Miss and Georgia, Alabama would be in position to advance because of their strength-of-conference-opponent schedule.

However, things get way more complicated if Alabama loses the SEC title game to a higher-ranked team like Texas A&M. A third loss would tank their playoff résumé, and the committee might lean toward more deserving teams.

What’s the play if Bama loses the SEC championship game?

BYU winning their conference championship and taking an automatic spot could push other teams up in the rankings, like their Big 12 championship opponent over-stacked Texas Tech. In that situation, the playoff committee would easily put No. 6 ranked Ole Miss and No. 4 ranked Georgia Bulldogs over a three-loss Alabama. Even then, the two-loss Joey Mcguire’s Texas Tech has a better shot than Bama to make the playoffs.

This whole scenario is a perfect example of how the new playoff format has completely shifted the dynamic of college football in the last 2 years. Alabama, the team that hasn’t touched the playoff in the last 4 years, now has to worry about the Big 12 championship game.

It adds a whole new layer of drama and means that teams who win their conference have a much bigger say in who gets into the playoff. For Alabama, their road is no longer just about winning, but also about needing some luck from other conferences and the playoff committee.