Ask an Oklahoma fan today if Brent Venables should be fired with another loss to Texas, and chances are, 8 out of 10 would say yes, no hesitation. After all, going 1–3 against the Longhorns in your first 4 seasons is usually a career-ender in Norman. But here’s where things get complicated. What if, midgame, John Mateer suffers a concussion, just like Dillon Gabriel did in 2022, while the Sooners are neck-and-neck with Texas? The game slips away after the injury, and Oklahoma takes the loss. Should Venables still take the fall? That would make 2 of his three Red River defeats without his starting QB. It’s scenarios like these—untimely injuries and rough luck—that have clouded Venables’ tenure. But in Norman, even the toughest breaks don’t lower the bar.

Well, Brent Venables’ first season at Oklahoma was nothing short of a survival story. With a gutted roster left behind by years of shaky recruiting and Lincoln Riley’s chaotic departure, just getting to six wins felt like a small miracle. Despite the rebuild, the Sooners still nearly knocked off 10-win, 13th-ranked FSU in their bowl game, falling by just 3 points. On top of that, in 2022, five of their seven losses came by a field goal or less. Fast forward to 2023, and Venables flipped the script. Oklahoma roared back with 10 wins and a statement victory over Texas. Even their setbacks were tight—two of their three losses came down to one score. So, the margin for error has been razor thin, but the climb back to national relevance is undeniable.

Now, Brent Venables finds himself at a defining crossroads. On the July 6 episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the message was loud and clear: the pressure is real in Norman. “Now, Oklahoma is very much Brent Venables, and Oklahoma has to win this year or they could be looking for a new head coach. And I think that’s fair. I think it’s very fair. I don’t know how you say otherwise,” said Pate.

But the Sooners aren’t just betting on potential—they’re backing it with a $4.5 million gamble. That figure reflects their investment in OC Ben Arbuckle, brought in from Washington State along with his QB. Here, Pate didn’t hold back, adding, “I mean, he’s had three years now. This will be his fourth year. There’s no sanctions there. There have been some questionable hires, and then to their credit, they hit the dump button. And now, at offensive coordinator, you go and you get Arbuckle and his quarterback from Washington State, and that’s who you’ve hitched your wagon to.” So, the stakes are sky high, and Venables’ seat has never been hotter.

However, Pate didn’t sugarcoat it—Brent Venables is out of excuses. And he laid it out bluntly, stating, “You don’t get to screw up multiple coordinator hires at this level. You just don’t get to do it. The stakes are too high. The pay is too high. All of that’s fair.” Then Pate made it clear this isn’t a case of Venables inheriting a broken program. “It would be unfair if someone else screwed everything up and then you tossed it in Brent Venables’ lap and said, ‘Hey, I know, I know we just made a mess in your lap there, but you still got to win or else it’s all going to be on you.’ That’s not what happened. That’s not what happened here. So, this is totally fair.” In short, the pressure’s cranked up on Venables, and this season, it’s either win big or watch the seat catch fire.

So, Josh Pate laid it out clearly—there are no more free passes for Brent Venables. And why should there be? “They’ve recruited good athletes there. And they’re going to be good defensively. They’ve elevated every year since he’s been there. I got little doubt about that,” said Pate. But progress alone won’t cut it in 2025. Pate pointed to the glaring issues: “Offensive line’s got to be way better. Quarterback position’s got to be way better. Offensive coordinator. The offensive product has got to be way better.” Now, with a brutal schedule ahead, the expectations are crystal clear. “I don’t think anyone is saying playoff or bust, but they better be noticeably improved this year. I think they will be, but they better be. They’re on the clock for that,” said the analyst. Simply put, it’s go time in Norman.

Keep in mind, last season, disaster struck on offense for Oklahoma. A messy co-OC situation, constant injuries at wide receiver, and an O-line gutted by years of poor recruiting all added up. Then the quarterback play didn’t help either—it was flat-out rough. But despite it all, the Sooners kept swinging. They clawed their way to a bowl game and dominated Alabama 21-3. Interestingly, through the chaos, Brent Venables made good on his word—his defense showed up and showed out. So….

What’s next for Brent Venables in 2025?

Well… It’s complicated. Expectations in Norman are sky-high—many Oklahoma fans are demanding at least eight wins, some pushing for nine or more. But the path is brutal. The Sooners face the toughest schedule in college football this year. Yup, seven of their opponents are ranked in the top 25, and two of their 3 road games are at Tennessee and Bama, two of the rowdiest, most unforgiving environments in the sport. So, it’s a gauntlet, and Venables has no room to stumble.

Now, with Oklahoma’s brutal 2025 schedule, the real question isn’t just how many games they win, but how they look doing it. If the Sooners stay competitive week in and week out, is that enough to keep Brent Venables safe? What if a blown call drops them to 8-4 instead of 9-3? Or injuries pile up again, yet they still grind out eight wins? What if they beat Texas but fumble a few winnable matchups? Even a first-round CFP loss might leave fans asking: Is that good enough? To be honest, in Norman, “almost” doesn’t cut it for long. Competitive might not save you—results will.

But what’s the breaking point for Oklahoma fans with Brent Venables this season? The truth is, no one really knows. There are too many moving parts, too many “what ifs” to pin down one clear line in the sand. Although one thing isn’t up for debate: Venables has to win. You know it. And you better believe he knows it, too.