Brent Venables has faced a lot of criticism of late. When you lose the Red River Showdown, that should be expected. Especially against a depleted Texas team. Then Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss visited and outplayed the Sooners in Week 9. Two tough conference losses have blown their chances of making it to the championship game. But the playoffs’ hopes are not done yet. There’s still a lot to play for when they face Tennessee in Week 10. And if one analyst is to be believed, John Mateer can be the trump card.

In Oklahoma’s 26-36 loss in Week 9, John Mateer didn’t look like himself for the most part. But he did connect for some big plays and got a few first downs using his legs. Venables will perhaps focus on the last two drives in the 4th quarter, where the Sooners could have still tied the game. Both times, Mateer failed to trouble Ole Miss’ defense. However, Greg McElroy thinks he can get it going against the Vols, though.

Speaking on ESPN College Football on Wednesday, McElroy revealed why he believes Oklahoma will take the win in the Week 10 game. Interestingly, he highlighted how the Sooners’ John Mateer could break his rut of bad form as well.

“I think they (Oklahoma) have fewer holes right now, and the injuries in Tennessee’s back and defense really concern me. So even if the Oklahoma passing game has regressed, I think this could be the get-right recipe if the offensive line can hold up and John Mateer can hit some big plays downfield.” 

McElroy further highlighted how Tennessee’s pass defense is ranked 124th in the country and has some big losses to cope with. While defensive backs Germod McCoy and Rickey Gibson were already ruled out, Colton Hood has also been listed as questionable against Oklahoma. The Thorpe Award semifinalist got hurt last week against Kentucky.

On the other side, John Mateer has had a tough go of things since returning from injury. From 304 average passing yards before his thumb problems, he’s now down to 192 in the three games since. However, according to the quarterback, his injury is not the reason for his poor performances of late.

John Mateer blames mental lapses for poor performances

John Mateer has been a polarizing quarterback in the past two seasons. As such, it is possible to draw a comparison between his 2024 and 2025 campaigns. Mateer can display the form of a bona fide Heisman contender but at times looks a shadow of himself as well. The redshirt junior quarterback recorded 223 passing yards against Ole Miss last week. His 17 of 31 completed passes made for his second-lowest completion percentage of the season.

That said, the QB believes that his mental lapses are the root cause of his troubles. “It’s definitely not my thumb,” Mateer told OU Daily. “I’ll tell you that, and I stand by that. My thumb is perfectly fine. I think it’s just ups and downs with the flow of the game. I’m a human; I’m not perfect.” Mateer has also been spending more time with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, with whom he previously worked at Washington State.

Focused on improving the offense, the idea is to utilize talents like Deion Burks, Isaiah Sategna, and Xavier Robinson. As such, Tennessee’s depleted defensive line and woeful pass defense could serve to be the perfect layup for John Mateer to kick on and make something of the season.

With a second consecutive loss, Brent Venables and co. would be firmly out of the CFP.