Remember the Oklahoma Sooners’ 2023 recruiting class? For starters, it was ranked 6th nationally and was the pinnacle of recruiting by Brent Venables. Jackson Arnold was there, P.J. Adebawore came in, and Peyton Bowen, the acquisition of the 2nd-ranked safety, was a coup. Cut short to the 2025 class, and you will know how much the recruiting has regressed under Venables. The class just has a single five-star recruit and is ranked 17th nationally. If producing results on the field has been a challenge for Venables, then recruiting needs to be injected with fresh life. And now? It seems another blow is on the cards.

Paul Finebaum even declared Venables to be on a hot seat for the 2025 season. “If he can’t turn this thing around pretty quickly, I don’t think he’s going to have much hope“. Yet, all of this hasn’t moved a needle for Venables as his 2026 class sits on 10th in the SEC and 27th nationally. The only bright spot? It was the acquisition of the 4-star, 11th-ranked QB, Jaden O’Neal. But now? All of it seems to be coming crashing down.

On3’s Steven Wiltfong recently provided a grim scenario where the Sooners could lose their ace acquisition, Jaden O’Neal. But still, added a QB who could make Norman his new home. “Now you have Florida State and Auburn. And I guess if I were hedging, I would lean toward FSU now as the biggest threat to flip Jaden O’Neal from Oklahoma. And if I were playing out the dominoes, and nothing is certain, but my guess today would be that Bowe Bentley is a Sooner and Jaden O’Neal is a Nole.”

While it’s no secret that Oklahoma is after Bowe Bentley aggressively, who himself is a 7th-ranked QB in the 2026 cycle. Ideally, the acquisition of both Jaden O’Neal and Bowe Bentley would have been great, as Venables wouldn’t just add quality but depth too. However, there’s an extent to which a program can spend. Moreover, Bentley himself is reported to be valued at $425,000 (NIL).

So, considering that, another QB acquisition could have been a challenge. But, even if the program could afford both of them, O’Neal himself wasn’t very keen on sharing the limelight with Bentley, as Wiltfong said. “With them recruiting Bowe Bentley, O’Neal is like, well, maybe I should see what’s out there“. But, this opens a scenario where FSU and Mike Norvell might just get a bargain. That said, the Sooners might cope considering the quality of Bentley.

Bentley is an incredible player who comes with a dual-threat ability like John Mateer. The guy led his high school (Celina, Texas) team to a 16-0 record for the state championship. Moreover, he did it in quite a prolific fashion. The QB notched up 4,200 yards and 63 touchdowns as a junior and made an appearance at the Navy All-American Bowl game. Surely, that looks like a QB having elite traits, right?

Standing at 6’2″ and 200 lbs, Bentley has worked under a wide range of offenses in his high school, which include under-center formations to empty spread pass offense. So, all in all, the loss of Jaden O’Neal might hurt, but if a 4,000+ yard QB is coming in exchange for that? That doesn’t look too much of a concern, right? That being said, the regression in recruitment is still concerning, and that could spill over in the 2025 season, too.

Making it even in the Bowl game will be an achievement for Oklahoma in 2025?

We all know how the offense deteriorated under Venables last year, as they finished 98th in scoring offense. This year? Well, there is hope this season as John Mateer comes at the back of a season in which he produced 3,139 passing and 826 rushing yards for Washington State. In some circles, the guy is even a Heisman candidate. But does that change the fate of Oklahoma in 2025?

Steve Lasson, speaking on ‘That SEC Football Podcast,’ spilled some bitter beans for Venables. “What if they just miss Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman that much on defense? I don’t think they will. But what if the offense just doesn’t hit like we think? Mateer struggles more against SEC competition. Much like Auburn, it feels like Oklahoma’s sort of variance this year is very wide. Like they could finish 9-3, they could also finish like 6-6. If things really go wrong, like injuries, then they’re sweating out a bowl bid.”

The schedule for Oklahoma looks like it has been written by Steve Sarkisian himself. The team will go against Michigan in week 2 and will face Auburn in week 4. Then they will have a stern test against their archrivals, Texas, on 11th October. Followed by games against Ole Miss, Tennessee (on the road), Alabama (on the road), and LSU. No wonder Lasson isn’t too optimistic about Venables for the 2025 season.