Saturday’s going to be a huge one for college football fans in Champaign. No. 23 Illinois (3-1, 0-1 in Big Ten) welcomes No. 21 USC (4-0, 2-0 in Big Ten) in a highly anticipated top 25 game. For Lincoln Riley, it’s a chance to prove the Trojans are scarier without Caleb Williams than they ever were with him. And for Bret Bielema, it’s a game that defines whether his Fighting Illini are real contenders for college football playoffs. But there’s a cloud hanging over Illinois’ most important piece – Luke Altmyer. 

In the latest episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show on September 25, the national analyst hit straight at the point. “Here’s what concerns me, and here’s why I’m going to put a 6.5 on the upset alert concern scale here, but no higher,” he said. “Luke Altmyer’s performance as quarterback there for Illinois against better teams—it just doesn’t scale.”

That’s a reality check that Illini fans might hate to hear but can’t ignore. Luke Altmyer is a redshirt senior who threw for 4,884 yards, piled up 41 TDs since last year, and led Illinois to a 16-7 record. “He’s got good numbers, okay? 70% completion guy, nine touchdowns, no picks through the air. It’s not that,” Josh Pate added. “It’s just I am very concerned, like I was last week, as it turns out, that the other guy can score. Okay, last week it was Fernando Mendoza. It was Indiana.” But this week, it’s going to be Jayden Maiava and the USC squad. 

Luke Altmyer ranks 15th nationally in passing efficiency (171.15) and has been flawless in protecting the ball. He’s one of just three Big Ten quarterbacks with nine or more touchdowns and zero interceptions, a group that includes Fernando Mendoza and USC’s Jayden Maiava. He’s also been steady in moving the chains. Through four games, the Illini QB has completed 70 passes, with 15 of them going for 15+ yards and seven stretching beyond 25. The problem is that Illinois still sits just 57th in the FBS for explosive plays. 

And while USC’s defense has struggled in the secondary, allowing nine 20+ yard completions already in Big Ten play, they counter with takeaways. Against Purdue, they bent for 357 yards but stole three possessions. That trade-off sets the stage for a classic dilemma. Can Illinois avoid mistakes while creating the big plays necessary to keep pace? Which brings us straight to the other sideline, where Lincoln Riley has quietly discovered a QB who looks tailor-made for his system.

Lincoln Riley finds confidence in Jayden Maiava and co. 

Lincoln Riley has never been shy with hyperbole, but what he told the L.A. Times makes you ponder. “The leadership and vibe, he said, is similar. But this is a more talented, more capable football team right now. By a pretty significant margin,” he said. Jayden Maiava is why. With 1,223 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions through four games, the sophomore is playing like he was custom-built for the Trojans’ offense. “I’ve made my thoughts very clearly known about how he’s a better fit for Lincoln even than Caleb Williams was,” Josh Pate said. 

Throw in Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders as a thunder-and-lightning backfield, and USC suddenly looks balanced in a way that Caleb Williams’ one-man heroics never allowed. That doesn’t mean Illinois is walking into a slaughter. The Illini defense, even after Indiana gashed it for 312 rushing yards last week, still profiles as one of the Big Ten’s tougher fronts. Most of those yards came late, when the defense was gassed from its own offense’s failures. If Bret Bielema’s bunch can bottle up USC’s ground game and force Jayden Maiava into obvious passing downs, there’s a chance.

So Saturday is a referendum on whether Bret Bielema’s Illinois is capable of stepping into the Big Ten’s top tier. On whether Luke Altmyer can rewrite the narrative about his ceiling. And on whether Lincoln Riley’s bold talk is more than California smoke.