The conversation around Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge is getting tense. Of course, some folks think LSU is set for a breakout year in 2025 with the No. 1 transfer class in the nation. But don’t let that become a complacent factor. Many are restless, and the wolves are circling. It’s not the shiny new pieces from the portal that are in the spotlight right now. The focus is on the Tigers’ HC. And that too in a bad light. And the question that folks are asking? 

Is Brian Kelly even making it to Thanksgiving? There you go. In a May 4 episode on Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the CFB analyst delved into a bold prediction by a possible Georgia fan (it has Georgia’s G logo as the profile picture). The prediction—“Brian Kelly is done at LSU before Thanksgiving.” That’s November 27 this year. “Does he quit, does he retire, is he fired? Don’t know, the prediction is just that he’s done there,” Josh Pate said. “This is a 9.25 on the boldness scale. This assumes that the season goes off the rails. And as we’ve learned in major college football, when a season goes off the rails, anything can happen.” If you rewind to 2024, you’ll see where that take is coming from. 

Year 3 under Brian Kelly last season was a wreck. You name it—They lost to an easy USC team, crushed by Alabama and Texas A&M, lost to Florida, and almost lost to South Carolina if their QB, LaNorris Sellers, didn’t get injured. So yeah, it was brutal. Aaron Torres of FOX Sports Radio put it bluntly, “This is what $10 million a year gets?” Well, LSU seems to be stuck.

If they were to fire their HC in 2025, it would cost them $51.7 million in contract buyout. Because his current 10-year contract runs through 2031 with a guaranteed $95 million over the next decade. But it can’t be as gloomy as the prediction right?

“I think LSU is going to be a player for the SEC title, I don’t think the season’s going off the rails,” Josh Pate predicted. But he also hit it with the “I could be wrong” statement. Hear this out. “An average team could be 5-6 going into the last weekend because they play Clemson, they play Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, A&M, Bama,” he added, painting the worst-case scenario. “There are a lot of losable games here. If they’re just an average team, I don’t think they’ll be better than that… If they are that, then yeah, Brian Kelly’s seat would be red-hot and you could see it going over the edge down there.” But here’s the twist….

Despite the chaos, LSU somehow sits at 10-2 in 247Sports’ early projection. The same staff that fumbled through 2024 is penciled as a playoff contender in 2025. Why? The roster. The dudes they brought in. 

Brian Kelly hauls in another weapon to his transfer class 

3-star transfer AJ Haulcy, the latest LSU recruiting headline. The All-Big 12 safety out of Houston just landed in Baton Rouge, as reported by 247Sports’ Matt Zenitz. That’s commitment No. 18, and this one’s big. Across two seasons, the 6’0, 215-pounder racked up 171 tackles and 10 pass deflections. Last season, he recorded five picks! No less than a plug-and-play starter talent. A perfect addition for Brian Kelly after he failed to add a veteran safety in the first portal period. 

In three seasons across New Mexico and Houston, AJ Haulcy has 2,121 snaps and a reputation as a field general in the secondary. And his commitment sits pretty on LSU’s portal class, which now boasts 18 commits—11 of them 4-stars. It’s a major haul. But here’s the deal. Recruiting wins don’t matter if Brian Kelly and his squad can’t deliver on the field.

Whether anyone likes it or not, that $51M question will continue to hang over his head like a storm cloud. And if the Tigers can’t change the course, starting with a formidable Week 1 road trip to Clemson, things could spiral down fast. 

Brian Kelly better hope AJ Haulcy and the rest of this class are the real deal. Because if not, that bold prediction might not be bold at all. It might just be the writing on the wall.