Caleb Downs has been nothing short of sensational during his three-year college career, first at Alabama and then at Ohio State. The 6-foot, 205-pound safety finished his 2025 junior season with 68 tackles, five tackles for loss, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles while earning Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year honors. Now, as he prepares for the 2026 NFL Draft, draft analyst Todd McShay has made a comparison so lofty it’s guaranteed to turn heads.

During an appearance on the Trap and Drive podcast, McShay was asked by host AJ about recent draft prospects that reminded him of other NFL players. When Caleb Downs’ name came up, McShay said, “Ed Reed, only because of the instincts. I don’t know that I’ve watched a player that has those kinds of instincts and is a step or two ahead of every single player in the defense for two straight years. And there were eight guys drafted last year, and he is always diagnosing before everybody else. And that’s what Ed Reed did. Now, Ed Reed had more interceptions. Ed Reed was more of a free safety like center fielder, right? But those instincts will translate to the NFL.” 

McShay also wrote in his NFL Draft 1.0, “Downs is one of the five best football players in this draft, but he could slide due to positional value and the fact that he won’t wow NFL teams with Nick Emmanwori–like numbers at the combine. But he’s also the most instinctive college defender in recent memory—maybe since Ed Reed.”

Comparing anyone to Ed Reed is rarified air. McShay himself acknowledged that Reed’s ball-hawking ability and center-field range set him apart. But what makes Caleb Downs special is his uncanny ability to diagnose plays before they develop. Downs consistently positions himself near the action, much like Luke Kuechly or Ray Lewis did at linebacker. He always seems to know where the ball is going before the offense does. His 257 career tackles are the result of elite processing speed and football IQ.​

Ed Reed became a Hall of Famer not just because of his physical gifts but because he was a relentless student of the game. Reed spent countless hours watching film, studying offensive tendencies, and anticipating route concepts before quarterbacks even dropped back. He wasn’t the fastest or the biggest safety. But his preparation allowed him to play with what looked like supernatural instincts. 

Reed once said he could tell what play was coming based on an offensive lineman’s stance or a receiver’s alignment. And that level of pre-snap awareness made him nearly impossible to fool. That’s the standard McShay is holding Downs to. And while Downs may not have Reed’s interception totals yet, the foundation is eerily similar.​ 

While Downs isn’t Ed Reed yet (nobody is), he has all the tools, instincts, and work ethic to reach that level of game awareness, which is why McShay is comfortable making the comparison in the first place.​

Why Downs could break the safety drought in the top 10

ESPN’s Jordan Reid shares McShay’s lofty assessment of Downs. He projected him to go No. 10 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals in his latest 2026 mock draft. That would make Downs the first safety selected in the top 10 since the New York Jets took Jamal Adams at No. 6 in 2017. 

But Reid isn’t just throwing darts at a board here. He explicitly calls Downs “one of the three best players in this year’s class.” Reid cited his versatility, sure tackling, and those Ed Reed-like instincts that McShay raved about. The Bengals make perfect sense as a landing spot, too. 

Coordinator Al Golden’s defense gave up a league-high 6.2 yards per play this past season. And Downs allowed only 3.6 yards per passing attempt into his coverage. It was the 11th-lowest mark in the FBS. With veteran safety Geno Stone set to hit unrestricted free agency, Cincinnati needs someone who can immediately step in and stabilize the secondary.

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NFL analyst Field Yates echoed the sentiment and called Downs a “zero-weakness” player who has benefited from coaching under Nick Saban at Alabama and two seasons at Ohio State in advanced defensive schemes. If McShay’s Ed Reed comparison holds any water, then Cincinnati might be landing a future Hall of Famer at pick No. 10.​