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NCAA, College League, USA Football 2025: College Football PlayoffSemifinal Cotton Bowl Ohio State vs Texas JAN 10 January 10, 2025: Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian during a third quarter timeout in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic agains the Ohio State Buckeyes at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Austin McAfee/CSM/Sipa USA Credit Image: Austin Mcafee/Cal Media/Sipa USA Arlington AT&T Stadium Tx United States NOxUSExINxGERMANY PUBLICATIONxINxALGxARGxAUTxBRNxBRAxCANxCHIxCHNxCOLxECUxEGYxGRExINDxIRIxIRQxISRxJORxKUWxLIBxLBAxMLTxMEXxMARxOMAxPERxQATxKSAxSUIxSYRxTUNxTURxUAExUKxVENxYEMxONLY Copyright: xCalxSportxMediax Editorial use only

via Imago
NCAA, College League, USA Football 2025: College Football PlayoffSemifinal Cotton Bowl Ohio State vs Texas JAN 10 January 10, 2025: Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian during a third quarter timeout in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic agains the Ohio State Buckeyes at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Austin McAfee/CSM/Sipa USA Credit Image: Austin Mcafee/Cal Media/Sipa USA Arlington AT&T Stadium Tx United States NOxUSExINxGERMANY PUBLICATIONxINxALGxARGxAUTxBRNxBRAxCANxCHIxCHNxCOLxECUxEGYxGRExINDxIRIxIRQxISRxJORxKUWxLIBxLBAxMLTxMEXxMARxOMAxPERxQATxKSAxSUIxSYRxTUNxTURxUAExUKxVENxYEMxONLY Copyright: xCalxSportxMediax Editorial use only
College football Saturdays are rarely short on drama. But this one felt like a full-blown plot twist ripped straight out of a sports thriller. The Texas Longhorns had all the buzz heading into their showdown with Ohio State. And they had to because of being the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, edging out Penn State by a razor-thin margin in one of the closest preseason votes since 1998. However, this season opener didn’t quite go as the Longhorns envisioned. Texas fell to No. 3 Ohio State in a tight, hard-fought battle, losing 14-7 in Columbus.
Ohio State’s defense smothered Texas’ star quarterback Arch Manning, limiting him to just 170 passing yards and a single touchdown. But while a lot of spotlight will go to Arch on why the Longhorns failed in their redemption arc against the Buckeyes, the coach can’t escape criticism either. Just like last year, the same red zone issues. There, but not really there! Even when Texas moved the ball and came inches away from the end zone, the offense failed to convert it.
Now that’s bad, but here’s the thing: even after such a shaky performance, the Longhorns aren’t about to lose their crown anytime soon. Yes, the Texas Longhorns will likely hold onto their No. 1 AP Poll ranking this season. And On3 insider Brett McMurphy points that out in his recent post on X. “Fortunately for Texas w/the new strength of schedule metrics demanded by SEC this year, Longhorns will remain No. 1 in AP Poll next week,” he writes.
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Fortunately for Texas w/the new strength of schedule metrics, demanded by SEC this year, Longhorns will remain No. 1 in AP Poll next week
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 30, 2025
The Longhorns garnered 25 first-place votes out of 65 and accumulated 1,552 points, underscoring respect and belief in their program’s upward trajectory. They were consistent over the recent season. They won 25 of their last 30 games and made back-to-back College Football Playoff semifinals. That cements a narrative that this Texas team is more than a flash in the pan. Then comes the elephant in the room, the schedule. That especially makes Texas a tough team to dethrone in the rankings. It’s no longer just about wins and losses but who you beat and lose to. The College Football Playoff committee introduced a new metric called “record strength.”
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This gives Texas major props for facing gnarly teams in the SEC and beyond. Wins over high-quality squads get a bigger gold star. While losses against those powerhouses don’t hurt the team much. Meanwhile, beating up on weak opponents? Less credit for that. Now, Texas has a monstrous slate ahead this season. And Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M are just some of the SEC beasts on their calendar. Other conferences don’t offer this kind of hard schedule. That loss at Ohio State will not be viewed as a catastrophic failure.
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Fans reacting to Texas Longhorns’ “no. 1” controversy
Fans may be scratching their heads, wondering why Texas will remain No. 1 in the AP Poll, even when they lost to a No. 3 opponent. Naturally, you’d think that the teams will swap places next week. That’s not going to happen. But here’s the thing with the NCAA: they always know what they are doing. “Yep. FPI will keep them #1,” a fan says. ESPN Football Power Index is a sophisticated forecast model that factors in team talent, coaching consistency, returning starters, recruiting rankings, and strength of schedule. Texas checks all those boxes exceptionally well.
They are projected with a 10.4-2.2 record and an 86.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff. That is the highest among all teams. Another fan chimes in, “They don’t look very good.” But Arch Manning is still growing into his role, and the defense, though occasionally tested, is loaded with impact players. “Even if they’re held scoreless??” Another fan wondered. Thanks again to the updated strength-of-schedule metrics and the respect for their overall body of work.
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Losses to top-tier teams like Ohio State or Georgia are seen as expected hurdles in a challenging path. Lastly, a fan writes, “Explain why Ohio State doesn’t jump them and bump them to 2?” Ohio State’s schedule, while strong, doesn’t quite match that brutal gauntlet. Voters and metrics reward Texas for being battle-tested in a fiercer football war zone, so one Ohio State win doesn’t outweigh that. Plus, the win over Texas by Ohio State, while impressive, was a tightly contested battle. Analytical models predicted a razor-thin margin, with Texas even favored in some simulations.
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All of this is happening because the committee chose an ACC team over several SEC teams for the 12-team playoffs last year. During the off-season, the SEC demanded that their SoS be considered, and they were heard.
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