The Lone Star Showdown belongs to Texas and HC Steve Sarkisian’s crew just handed No. 3 Texas A&M its first loss of the season. A humbling 27-17 heartbreak. But the real question humming underneath all that burnt-orange swagger is did Texas just punch a ticket into the 12-team College Football Playoff? It’s a yes and no either, depending on the remaining games. 

Texas entered the night sitting at No. 16. Even after the rivalry win, ESPN prediction still gives them just a meagre 11% chance for the playoffs. But here’s the hidden reality. With four teams between the Longhorns and the cutoff, and a resume now featuring a win over an 11-0 giant, the Longhorns are just deeply dependent on chaos.

To understand the path, start with the five current projected auto-bid locks. Ohio State (Big Ten), Texas A&M (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Miami (ACC), and Tulane (AAC). These fill nearly half the field before at-large chaos begins. Texas must climb the at-large ladder and they need specific dominos to fall. And the first domino should be a meltdown in Tuscaloosa.

One scenario where they can clinch a playoff berth is if No. 10 Alabama loses to Auburn. A 5-6 Tigers team beating the Tide could make for one of the wildest upsets of the season. It would knock the HC Kalen DeBoer’s party out of the SEC Championship, kill their automatic bid chances, and leave them at 9-3 with losses to FSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The CFP committee history isn’t kind to three-loss teams in seasons loaded with 10-1 and 11-0 contenders. Alabama slipping out of at-large range clears an entire lane for a team like Texas to slide upward.

Texas also benefits from No. 15 Michigan beating No. 1 Ohio State. At 10-2 with a win over the undefeated Buckeyes, HC Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines would skyrocket from No. 15 into the at-large conversation. Also, Michigan winning reshuffles the Big Ten’s auto-bid and compresses the bubble, pushing lower-ranked teams down. And it would be Texas who benefits from that squeeze. That win over the Aggies is exactly where the Longhorns’ case becomes indefensible to ignore.

With the win over Texas A&M, Texas climbs to 9-3, but more importantly, they own the single best win of the CFP season over a top-3 undefeated rival. It is also their sixth victory in their last seven contests, momentum the committee historically values in late November. QB Arch Manning delivered a second-half masterclass completing 14-of-29 for 170 yards plus a 29-yard touchdown to Ryan Wingo, as well as a 35-yard rushing dagger that broke A&M’s containment entirely. His seven carries for 53 yards added a dual-threat dimension Texas had been waiting to unleash. And with the aftermath still settling across the SEC, the implications of Texas’ statement win stretch far beyond College Station.

The reality behind Texas’ playoff odds

Texas has now beaten its in-state rival in back-to-back seasons, stripping Texas A&M of SEC Championship contention. Meanwhile, Steve Sarkisian continues defending Texas’ aggressive scheduling, most notably opening the year against Ohio State, as justification for their three-loss record. The Florida loss remains difficult to defend, but the HC isn’t wrong about the value of front-loaded difficulty in the CFP era. Yet history has never been friendly to three-loss hopefuls.

Recent 12-team model data is damning. Last year’s bracket included only one three-loss team which is Clemson, and only because it won the ACC title. Alabama (9-3), despite a stronger overall profile, was excluded entirely. And ESPN’s Heather Dinich’s assessment is critical.

“While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team,” she wrote. “Even with some upsets above them, it’s unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12.”

Well, Tuesday’s rankings release will reveal whether the committee truly values Texas’ shockwave. The Longhorns will learn its playoff fate in real time as the next CFP rankings drop Tuesday, with the official bracket set for Dec. 7.