Lincoln Riley enters his fifth season at USC with a team that could finally give him the kind of season everyone expected when he arrived in Los Angeles.
The talent is there. The offense is still one of the better units in the country. And USC’s 2026 schedule leaves very little room for a slow start. That’s exactly why the Oregon game on September 26 has suddenly become so important.
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“I have them [USC] with 3 losses. I think they’ll beat Maryland. UCLA is probably a year away,” Colin Cowherd said in conversation with Urban Meyer on his August 18 podcast. “I like the coach, but they don’t have the personnel. So, I think they’re gonna lose to Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State. If they do that with that schedule.
“At home, they’re a different football team. They’re really good at home. On the road, you can’t convince me they can go to Indiana if it’s 9 degrees and win. I just don’t buy it.”
As for Meyer, he called September 26 the “Rubicon game” for Riley. His argument was straightforward. If USC beats Oregon at home, Meyer believes the Trojans can build enough momentum to reach double-digit wins. Lose it, and the schedule gets much harder from there.
USC opens with San Jose State, Fresno State, and Louisiana before traveling to Rutgers. Oregon then comes to the Coliseum on September 26, followed by Washington. After that, the Trojans travel to Penn State and Wisconsin, host Ohio State, and eventually travel to Indiana, the reigning national champions. There is not much breathing room after the initial easy run.
Despite a tough second half of the schedule, USC has everything to register a solid playoff campaign this year. For starters, Riley has QB continuity with Jayden Maiava, who is also a dark-horse Heisman contender. Most importantly, Riley’s defensive woes won’t be there this year, as he brought Gary Patterson as his new DC. Patterson is a Hall of Fame coach with a proven track record with his 4-2-5 coverage mastery. But that’s not all.
USC will also enter the season with four of the five starting OLs from 2025. Together, they have combined for 76 starts and surrendered just a sack per game last year. Not just that, King Miller, who rushed for 972 yards last year, will also have his breakthrough season. Waymond Jordan also returns after notching 576 rushing yards last year. Add Riley’s No. 1 recruiting class and the Coliseum’s edge into the equation, and USC might just breach that playoff barrier.
The major problem for USC would be its away games, where they will have to travel cross-country in different time zones. Additionally, from September 26 to November 14, USC’s schedule is stacked with quality opponents. That includes Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana. That’s one reason why the danger of slipping to 8-4 this season also looms large once they lose momentum against Oregon.