Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is on a hot seat heading into the 2026 season. More than a dozen D1 head coaches were fired last year, and despite a disappointing season, Norvell somehow escaped that fate. It was linked to the huge buyout FSU would have had to pay for firing him. According to ESPN’s Jordan Rodgers, Norvell can’t afford another bad season.

“I mean, it’s hot for sure, right?” Jordan Rodgers said on August 28, when asked whether Mike Norvell’s seat is hot. “You can’t go 2-10 and 5-7 and have another dud of a year. Here’s the thing, though. Maybe it’s the Guinness. Maybe it’s the good Irish vibes I’ve got going over here. But I’m hammering the over on all these.”

Florida State had a disastrous 2024 season. After going 13-1 and winning the ACC title in 2023, the Seminoles completely bottomed out. They went 2-10 in 2024. The start of FSU’s 2025 season was quite promising. Mike Norvell, who is on a $10.3 million annual salary, defeated Alabama in Week 1 and was 3-0 at one point.

But then everything fell apart. When the offense was humming, the defense never got going, and the Noles lost several close games. That includes a 38-46 overtime loss to Virginia, followed by a 22-28 loss to Miami. Even against Pittsburgh, FSU lost 31-34, another tough one-score defeat in which the Noles couldn’t get key defensive stops. The team could have easily made to the bowl game.

For the 2026 season, ESPN’s Harry Douglass had FSU’s over/under at 5.5 wins. Rodgers is picking them to go over because of their QB1.

“I’m actually really bullish on Ashton Daniels. “I think he’s what you call a force multiplier,” Rodgers added. “He’s a guy that makes everybody else around him better. On a bad Auburn team last year, he stepped in against Vanderbilt and went for 440+ yards in a shootout and only lost by a touchdown. And then in the Iron Bowl against Alabama, he had like 360 yards and lost a one-score game as well.”

“So Ashton Daniels at quarterback is a guy that can make you better. He’s an extremely talented dual-threat quarterback. I think they get over the hump here. Now, I’m not saying six wins is enough to say, “Hey, let’s extend this guy.”But I think they got a chance to get to a bowl game and turn things around there.”

Teammates and analysts widely praise Daniels as a “freak of nature athlete.” Florida State is bringing in an entirely new offensive line. Daniels’ proven running ability and talent for making plays out of structure will be vital in extending drives when plays break down.

However, the new FSU QB1 will have to play with an entirely new offensive line. Norvell had to rebuild the entire OL after losing all five primary starters following the 2025 season. The likes of Xavier Chaplin, Nate Pabst, Bradyn Welch-Joiner, Chimdia Nwaiwu, and Paul Bowling are competing for starting spots for the next season. Even the running back room has a new weapon in Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner.

Moreover, Norvell has not made many changes to the staff after the 2025 season. Primarily, he has taken hold of the play-calling duties after Gus Malzahn’s surprise retirement in February. He has retained DC Tony White for now, but brought in some new assistants.

FSU has a relatively easier start to its 2026 campaign against New Mexico. But that game is followed by a tough encounter against SMU. In Week 3, the Noles will have to travel to Tuscaloosa to play the return leg of their home-and-home series against Alabama. The Tide already has redemption on their mind for their embarrassing loss to the Noles last season.

If things go as last season ended, FSU can easily be 1-2 in its first three games. From thereon, it’ll be an uphill battle to make it to the bowl game, which would be a minimum requirement for Norvell to save his job.