Carson Beck’s draft profile is fascinating and challenging to evaluate, especially when surrounded by elite playmakers at Miami and Georgia, and with clutch moments like in the CFP semifinals. Then, once in a while, he’ll throw four interceptions in a single game. According to analysts, there is a sea of red flags in Carson Beck’s game.

With the national championship around the corner, this stretch could solidify his NFL stock or seriously damage it.

On January 13, former NFL players Brogan Roback and Darien Terrell discussed Beck’s polarizing draft profile on The Rush Podcast. And while the highlight clips appear crisp at times with short-range accuracy and completion percentage, a deeper evaluation tells a different story.

“I don’t know how an NFL Scout you’re sitting there saying after Mendoza, if that’s everyone saying clear cut number one,” said Roback. “I don’t see how Carson, who’s played a s— ton of football, they normally make it to some extent or become a guy at the next level.”

When you look at quarterbacks who have started a lot of games, most of them end up becoming something in the NFL, even if they aren’t stars. A good example is Bo Nix with the Denver Broncos. In theory and pattern recognition, Carson Beck should be an NFL star, considering six years in college football and two national championships.

But despite being the most experienced quarterback in all of college football, the podcast hosts pointed out serious concerns on tape.

He hasn’t thrown the deep ball very well, and many of his deep passes have been underthrown. Unlike someone like Bo Nix, who at least showed he could drive the ball downfield, Beck plays in an offense where he wasn’t asked to do much. And when he is asked to take on more responsibilities, turnovers unfortunately tend to increase.

That trend hasn’t improved one bit, even after his move from Georgia, across the 2024 season at Georgia, and the ongoing 2025 season at Miami. He has thrown a high number of interceptions: 12 in 2024 and 11 so far in 2025.

You can cut him some slack for the 2024 interceptions. Georgia’s offensive line wasn’t imposing, and the receivers led the nation in drops. Additionally, an elbow injury was holding him back. But 2025 is harder to explain away. The Miami Hurricanes are as talented as any other team in the country.

The Hurricanes are 13-2, with regular losses, and Beck was at the center of both losses.

The first came against Louisville in October, where he threw four interceptions in what was arguably the worst game of his career. The second loss was to SMU, where he threw two interceptions, including a critical one in overtime that sealed the game. On top of that, Beck rarely extends plays with his legs, recording only two or three rushing touchdowns all season.

Outside of those two games, Carson Beck has delivered solid football, throwing 29 touchdowns, over 3,581 yards, and 73% completions. But the pattern is as simple as it gets. When he’s asked to elevate the offense with big plays, things tend to break down.

His résumé screams top 10 accomplished college signal-caller of all time. However, some scouts are anxious that his skills won’t translate because he hasn’t shown enough high-level deep throws or playmaking.

Despite all that, Carson Beck still got a chance to change the narrative with an upset win over Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers on January 19.

Miami and Carson Beck’s chances of pulling the upset

The Hoosiers are currently listed as 8.5-point favorites across sportsbooks. The Hurricanes have a real opportunity to pull off a monumental upset and win their first natty in 26 years. Much of Miami’s hope rests on Carson Beck and a defense that has been playing lights-out football.

If you look at the playoff version of Carson Beck, he’s been nearly flawless. In the CFP, he has thrown for 509 yards and four touchdowns with only one turnover, against the No. 1-ranked Ohio State and other elite opponents.

For Miami to win, Beck needs to continue doing what he’s done lately. He must utilize the RPO game effectively with Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney, just as Miami did against three top-10 teams during the playoff run.

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Fortunately, Beck doesn’t have to rely solely on his arm talent or the offensive skill group. The Hurricanes’ defense demands respect. They have held their last three opponents to just 35 combined points while forcing 5 turnovers during their CFP run.

Despite Indiana’s 15–0 record and overall dominance, the Hurricanes have a few things working in their favor, including the advantage of playing at home at Hard Rock Stadium. That atmosphere could help keep the game tight. While most experts still expect Indiana to claim its first national championship, the upset doesn’t look like a miracle for Miami.