Carson Beck has already done something most QBs never will. He started 43 of 55 career games across a long college career that stretched from Georgia to Miami, losing just six of them. Beck even survived coordinator changes, injuries, and shifting expectations. That experience is why NFL evaluators still keep his name on draft boards. It is also why his margin for error has become thin as he approaches the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh.

Carson Beck may have lost the chance to win the national championship game with Miami, losing to the Indiana Hoosiers, but he’s among the favorites to get drafted to an NFL franchise. Experts believe that he might end up getting picked by the oldest team in the league that has yet to win a Super Bowl.

“Carson Beck to the Cardinals?” Polymarket Sports tweeted on January 20. “He’s currently the favorite to get picked 3rd in the NFL Draft. Arizona hasn’t won their division since 2015. Could he save them from the depths of the NFC?” 

According to the projection, Carson Beck currently holds a 41 percent chance of being selected third overall by the Cardinals. For a franchise valued between $5.5 and $5.66 billion, stability at the position remains elusive.

Arizona’s situation explains the intrigue. Kyler Murray is still under a 5-year, $230 million contract that runs through 2027, but his 2025 season was limited to just five games. The organization is also preparing to hire its third head coach in five years. The Cardinals own the No. 3 overall pick, plus premium selections in every round through Day 2. If a new coaching staff wants its own QB, the resources are already in place. That is how a prospect like Carson Beck stays relevant even when the tape raises questions.

Carson Beck’s path to this moment has been uneven. Once viewed as a potential top-10 pick during his time at Georgia, his stock fell after a rocky 2024 season and an elbow injury in the SEC Championship Game. Instead of entering the 2025 draft, he transferred to Miami, betting that one clean season could stabilize his profile. It worked for the most part. Beck completed 72.4 percent of his passes in 2025 for 3,813 yards, with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It was the most efficient season of his career. 

But there’s also skepticism. Carson Beck ranks No. 99 on the NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus board, projecting him as a late third- or early fourth-round pick and the sixth QB in his class. Mel Kiper Jr. previously described him as a “late day two, early day three” option, a profile typically associated with long-term backups. 

The concerns are age, limited mobility, and, most importantly, he has struggled to consistently elevate his teams in the biggest moments. The national championship on Monday night only reinforced that narrative. Carson Beck’s last college game ended with a 27-21 loss to Indiana, sealed by a late interception.

The interception that may haunt Carson Beck after the national title loss

Against Indiana, Carson Beck finished 19-of-32 for 232 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Miami had the ball at Indiana’s 41-yard line with 44 seconds left, down six. The opportunity was there. So Beck launched the ball deep for WR Keelan Marion, which was intercepted, sealing the game for the undefeated Hoosiers to win the national title.

That ending does not erase the context, though. Carson Beck led three TD drives, including a 91-yard march, and finished with more passing yards than Fernando Mendoza. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal publicly backed him afterward. The decisive swing came earlier, when a blocked punt turned into an Indiana touchdown and flipped the game. The QB acknowledged the weight of the moment afterward. 

“It really hurts, and it’s hard the way that it ended,” he said. 

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