Year Four under Brian Kelly feels like the one the LSU Tigers circled the moment he stepped foot in Baton Rouge. Garrett Nussmeier is no longer the kid waiting in the wings—he’s a legit Heisman candidate and arguably the most accomplished returning quarterback in the SEC. The offense has the speed and spacing to be top-10 nationally, and Blake Baker’s 2 year calling the defense brings stability and scheme familiarity. On paper, the Tigers are built for a deep postseason push. But the real question isn’t about talent. It’s about timing—and whether this group can survive the gauntlet of their brutal 2025 schedule.

Cole Thompson and Dave Shumate broke it down on SEC Unfiltered, and neither held back on where the Tigers stand. “I’ve heard that Mansoor Delane, the transfer from Virginia Tech, has been really good from somebody high up in LSU’s building that they loved him a lot,” Thompson said. And that kind of praise isn’t tossed around lightly in Baton Rouge. They’re banking on Jack Pyburn to carve out a role as a designated pass rusher, and if Patrick Payton flashes in the front seven, that’s bonus juice.

Thompson added, “It’d be the defense because I believe the offense [is] the most important spot going into the year. I think we’d all agree he’s the most accomplished quarterback—Nussmeier—in the league right now. Would still like to see him take that next step, but I don’t think he really has to take that next step for them just to get to the playoffs.”

Shumate pushed it further. “Yeah, I think he would have to take that next step. But just to get to the playoffs, I think they could be better around him a little bit, surround him a little bit, get some more winnable plus players through the portal like they have—or some think they have—but they’ve tried to address it. I think that could get in the playoffs. National Championship is another step, but why they could or if you told me why they did, Bear, I think it would certainly be an improvement on the defensive side of the ball in year two for Blake Baker.”

But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room—or maybe the running back who hasn’t quite broken loose. LSU’s inability to consistently run the ball last season wasn’t just a minor setback. It was a game-swinging liability.

“Can they run the football? That’s—to me—that’s what it all comes down to,” said Shumate. “So, you think if you were just as bad defensively and they ran a little better, though?” Thompson chimed back, “I think if you had enough defensively last year and you were able to at least put up a decent rushing attack, you would have been—I think 10-2 or at least 9-3. The injuries did eventually hurt you, and yeah, you were still indoctrinating your culture.”

For a team that ranked 89th nationally in rushing and averaged under 83 yards per game despite multiple backs, that’s not nitpicking—it’s a red flag. And while Kaden Durham showed flashes of brilliance with breakaway runs against Oklahoma and Baylor, LSU needs more than moments. They need production they can lean on when the passing game hits turbulence. “If you can stop the run, that’s a big-time deal because it eliminates one major element of a factor that hurt you last year,” Thompson said. That goes both ways—stopping it and actually doing it.

That’s where the O-Line becomes the hinge. LSU will be replacing four starters from 2024, with redshirt sophomore DJ Chester returning at center. The spring rotation saw Tyree Adams (LT), Paul Mubenga (LG), Chester (C), Coen Echols (RG), and Weston Davis (RT) run with the ones. The second team featured Carius Curne, Ory Williams, Braelin Moore, Bo Bordelon, and Josh Thompson—who many expect to join the starting group by fall. Thompson’s been labeled as a transfer “set to make an immediate impact in 2025 for LSU,” and that’s no small ask. Winning in the trenches could decide whether this offense clicks at a playoff level or stalls just short.

Brian Kelly and his staff brought in 18 newcomers from the portal to raise the ceiling and close the margin of error. That’s the bet.

Fourth time’s the charm? Coach O on Brian Kelly’s pressure cooker

Ed Orgeron knows a thing or two about pressure — especially when you’re roaming the sidelines in Death Valley. The former LSU legend HC, who led the Tigers to a historic national title in 2019, recently joined XL Primetime on Jacksonville Sports Radio and pulled back the curtain on what it’s really like coaching in Baton Rouge.

“I just know the expectations at LSU are number one or nothing,” Orgeron said bluntly. “I mean, LSU, they expect you to win the national championship. Now they don’t expect you to win it every year, but Coach Saban won it in his third year. Les Miles won it in his third year. And I won it in my third year. So the expectations are high there.”

No pressure, right?

Wrong. That puts a massive spotlight on Brian Kelly heading into Year 4 at LSU — and Coach O thinks the heat is very real. “I think he’s got a really good team. He’s got a really good quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier. He’s got a tough opener at Clemson. So I think that the expectations bring on a lot of pressure, especially when you haven’t won a championship yet,” Orgeron added.

Kelly’s résumé is stacked, but that elusive national title is still missing.