Where does Carson Beck and Miami stand in the CFP picture? If there’s one thing more unpredictable than November football, it’s the ACC trying to explain its way into the Playoffs. This week’s rankings brought clarity to the chaos or at least tried to. The CFP Committee finally dropped some breadcrumbs on how the Hurricanes, somehow the highest-ranked ACC team at No. 15, can make a late-season run to the big stage. But it’s complicated.

You see Miami film and think that’s a Playoff team. But the CFP Committee is ambiguous. That vague vibe became the talk of November 11 when SportsCenter’s X post lit up with Rece Davis grilling CFP Chair Mack Rhoades on Miami’s strange standing. “Miami is the highest ranked team out of the ACC,” the ESPN analyst said. “It seems as if maybe there was a bit of a course correction on the ranking of the Hurricanes… What was the discussion like on Miami?” Mack Rhoades didn’t dodge. “The conversation with Miami has been about their consistency, especially on offense. They’ve been really, really good, on defense,” he said. And he didn’t stop there.

Some might find it strange because on paper, Miami looks like the team you wouldn’t want to face in a dark alley or in a bowl game. But as Rhoades said, “Obviously, the head-to-head with Notre Dame comes up and so a lot of conversation about Notre Dame, seven straight, better defensively than what they were at the beginning of the year. So all of those things played into it.” Mario Cristobal’s team looks great in highlights but hasn’t quite passed the smell test. 

The Hurricanes have thrashed their way through nonconference play, racking up wins over No. 10 Notre Dame, No. 25 South Florida, and Florida. They sit 13th in the SP+ rankings, boasting one of the nastiest pass rushes in America behind Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. “We’ve got great respect for Miami. When you think about the eye test, they’re really talented, both sides of the ball, just need to be a little bit more consistent on the offense,” Rhoades added. And here’s another mess. 

The Hurricanes have fumbled away their own destiny, sitting at 3-2 in conference play after gut-wrenching losses to Louisville and SMU. There are five one-loss teams ahead of them in the standings, and Louisville owns a tiebreaker. According to SportsLine, Miami’s odds to win the ACC have plummeted to 2.9%. But they still have a 12.7% shot at making the CFP as an at-large. So where does that leave them? Win out, likely finishing 10-2 with a road victory over No. 22 Pitt, and pray the Playoff chaos gods are merciful.

The ACC’s tiebreaker circus could doom its best team

This is where the league’s own expansion bites back. With a 17-team ACC and a buffet of overlapping tiebreakers, the best squads might not even sniff the conference title game. Five ACC teams are ranked in the CFP’s Top 25, yet two of the top three favorites to win the conference are unranked. Mack Rhoades tried to frame it diplomatically. “We really look at each team on its own,” he said. “We don’t look at conferences. We look at each of the teams. I think for the ACC, when you look at their nonconference schedules, there’s really no signature wins other than Miami vs. Notre Dame.”

Consider SMU, second-best odds to win the league, but losses to Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest make them about as playoff-worthy as a Sun Belt team. Duke is 5-4 with losses to Illinois, Tulane, Georgia Tech, and UConn. And that’s the kicker. The five conference champs are guaranteed playoff spots, but no one said they had to come from the Power Four. Remember last year, Mountain West champ Boise State finished ahead of ACC champ Clemson. Now, with No. 24 South Florida ranked higher than Duke, and a potential 12-1 James Madison lurking, the ACC could end up eating itself alive.

When the smoke clears, Miami might remain the league’s best team but the path is a bureaucratic nightmare. In true Mario Cristobal fashion, the Hurricanes could dominate everyone that doesn’t matter and still fall short of the prize that does. Because in this year’s ACC, even the best can’t win the right way and that’s the biggest mess of all.