The moment we’ve all been waiting for—the penultimate CFP ranking is here! Disappointment is inevitable in such circumstances, and it’s Lane Kiffin, Mario Cristobal, and Shane Beamer who had to face defeat after waiting in line for so long. But there are still three programs fighting for the last two spots. Who do you think they are?

If you had Alabama in mind as one of the three teams, you’re right. On3 posted the new CFP rankings on Instagram on December 4, and the result is heartbreaking for Ole Miss, Miami, and South Carolina in this projected playoff picture. Meanwhile, 3-loss Alabama is in better hands under Kalen DeBoer as they snagged the 11th spot in the new rankings. 

For now, undefeated Oregon continues to rule at No. 1, trailed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Georgia. Ohio State faced a big setback, dropping four spots to No. 6 after their unexpected loss to Michigan in The Game. Tennessee, SMU, Indiana, and Boise State made up the top 10, leaving Alabama and Miami at No. 11 and 12, respectively. Ole Miss and South Carolina trailed in the following two spots. 

The top 7 teams are included in the projected CFP bracket. No. 9 Indiana will be in. The winners of Iowa State vs. Arizona State and Boise State vs. UNLV will be included. This leaves us with the last two spots with three contenders—Alabama, SMU, and Clemson. The 11th and 12th spots will be taken by Alabama and the winner of the SMU vs. Clemson ACC Championship clash to round up the 12-team CFP bracket. Right now, Miami sits one spot behind Alabama, but it’s not likely that the Hurricanes will surpass the Crimson Tide in the final rankings.

Alabama has better odds than Miami 

Kalen DeBoer’s team is 3-1 against teams that are ranked by the committee compared to Miami’s 0-1. Alabama’s schedule includes six wins against teams with winning records in contrast to the Canes’ 4-2. As CFP chairman Warde Manuel said, “Any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked. And so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of the championship week. There’s nothing that’s gonna change.” 

This would mean that Alabama has a good chance to be on the final CFP rankings list. If Alabama marks it to the final CFP rankings, it would look good for their record, as it would be the ninth time in 11 seasons that they secured a playoff berth. But if Miami gets the ACC automatic bid, the decision will fall on the committee whether to pick 11-2 SMU or 9-3 Alabama. December 8 will finalize everything regarding the playoff seeds.