The Georgia Bulldogs are set to face the AAC’s bottom-ranked team in Charlotte at 12:45 PM ET in Athens. It’s a game where the Bulldogs are expected to win by a margin, considering they have been undefeated since losing to Alabama. In Week 12, Georgia overpowered a 10th-ranked Texas comfortably. Still, putting money on Georgia would be a blunderous move. Here’s why.

The Bulldogs are currently favored by 44 points against Charlotte this weekend. Major analysts have expected a blowout win, and the mood in the camp is to approach it as just a regular-season game. “When I was younger and those older guys were playing their senior day, it didn’t matter who you were playing. You want to set them off the right way, so I think that’s going to juice everyone up this week, and we’re excited,” said UGA tight end Oscar Delp.

Despite that assurance, betting on the Georgia game will be a disastrous move. For one, Kirby Smart is 0-15 so far whenever the program has been a 38-point favorite or more. Additionally, Georgia won 28-6 against Austin Peay this season, even though they were favored by 48 points. The message seems simple. Even with Oscar Delp’s statement, Georgia is trying to prepare for the marquee Georgia Tech game.

“This is about as much of an exhale/letdown/sandwich/any other cliché game as it gets. Georgia doesn’t want to do anything to put players in harm’s way before getting the Georgia Tech game up next,” reported Yahoo Sports’ Pete Fiuak. Georgia plays Georgia Tech on November 28th. It would likely treat the Charlotte game as an opportunity to rotate players and not put too much workload on crucial players, such as Nate Frazier, Zachariah Branch, and CJ Allen.

Even QB2 Ryan Puglisi can see some snaps to rest QB1 Gunner Stockton. All of that surely won’t mean Georgia losing the game. But it would be almost Herculean for Georgia to cover the 44-point spread to beat Charlotte. However, that’s not all, as the numbers also support this claim.

The Bulldogs have covered their spread five times this season. However, they haven’t covered the spread in a single game when playing as more than a 43.5 points favorite. On the other hand, Charlotte’s record against the spread is 3-6-1 this season, which signals some resiliency. Never mind, the program is a road dog that has covered the 43.5 line in 20 consecutive road games. What is the best betting strategy for this game?

Can Georgia finally break its 0-15 streak against Charlotte?

Charlotte is 1-9 in the season and has been a woeful story throughout. The team’s offense sits 117th nationally, accumulating just 312 yards per game. On the other hand, the defense ranks 136th in the country, conceding 475.1 yards per game, which places them last in the nation. That said, the passing offense can make things complicated for people betting against the spread. The program ranks 80th nationally and is capable of putting some points on the scoreboard. But can Georgia capitalize on turnovers?

“Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of their losses this season, and they have averaged just 1.6 yards per carry the last two weeks. Georgia is 0-2 against the spread when favored by 28 points or more this season, and there is no need to run the score up against the 49ers ahead of the Georgia Tech game. Turnovers will decide how bad this gets,” reported Sporting News’ Bill Bender.

Expect Charlotte to post 10-15 points easily, while Georgia will most likely put 40-43 points on the board. An upset is also unlikely. So, how should one bet for this game? Kirby Smart’s 0-15 record against a 38-point spread or more doesn’t really give much confidence to bet on it. The best bet then becomes betting under 53.5, which is always a safe play for lower-scoring second-half games. The Fox Model, too, predicts a 48-5 score, which would push the total to 53, making it a low-risk bet.