After winning titles in 2016 and 2018, the national championship has become the baseline expectation at Clemson. Easily one of the most elite teams ahead of the season, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are already at the top of almost all preseason lists. However, Clemson must first secure a spot in the playoffs before advancing to the big game. Despite returning as one of the heavyweight programs this year, there are some nagging thorns in Swinney’s path that he has to steer clear of.

By winning a third national title, Swinney would top the list of active college football coaches in total championships. And given how lethal his squad looks, he is very well in line to achieve that feat. Clemson returns a top Heisman candidate in Cade Klubnik, the star of the 2025 squad. The Tigers have the second-highest number of returning starters among Power 4 schools, tying with Illinois at 16. Klubnik is joined by his trusty receiver trio of Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore. And Swinney has one of the most elite D-Lines in the country, also composed of veterans.

But even with all these weapons, Clemson only barely managed to make it to the playoffs last year. They fell out of the top-10 rankings, despite Klubnik registering his career best that year. According to an ESPN analyst, it’s not the team that has question marks; it’s the schedule. According to the All State Playoff Predictor, Clemson is among the 32 teams having a 10% chance to enter the playoffs (no surprises there). But the way they end up casts some doubt. More precisely, that will be defined by how Swinney ends up in two of his rematches this season, with Louisville and SMU.

We know how the Mustangs shocked the football community by bagging one of the last remaining spots. It’s no wonder that fans are putting them under the microscope this season, to see if they can continue their miracle run. On the other hand, a strong Louisville team also failed to miss the playoffs, despite having an upset win over Clemson in the bag. “If Clemson is going to make a deep run into the playoff, though, or have a chance at a bye, it shouldn’t lose to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to beat SMU in last year’s ACC title game, and they shouldn’t lose to the Mustangs at home this year,” ESPN‘s Heather Dinich wrote of the Predictor analysis.

In February, ESPN marked the Louisville game as the “make-or-break” matchup for Clemson this year. Sure, the opener against LSU will define the tone for the Tigers’ campaign. But a second loss against the Cardinals, despite having such a chart-topping team, will look bad on the playoff report card. Louisville is not ranked far behind Clemson in the preseason rankings, placing 5. The Cardinals’ 2025 squad is also one of Jeff Brohm’s best. How Dabo Swinney fares against the Tigers’ rival will impact his run to the playoffs. Surprisingly, SMU is closer to Clemson than Louisville in the preseason ranking, expected to finish third in the ACC.

Dabo Swinney has reason to worry, because this is the year when Clemson gets back to its glory days. He also doesn’t usually lose to the same team back-to-back, but Brohm and Rhett Lashlee have the potential to outsmart him. Yes, Clemson is a top favorite for many to win the National Championships. But there are also chances that may not happen.

Dabo Swinney’s 2025 National Championship hopes downplayed once again

“Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it’s underrated,” Dinich wrote. With a Heisman-worthy QB in Cade Klubnik, and elite defensive guys like Zane Durant, Dabo Swinney does not have excuses in case they fail to win the Natty this year. Some are not quite convinced about the Tigers winning the 2025 title. “Let me sprinkle a little hatred… Here’s my only thing – Everybody’s like, ‘[Clemson] Should be No. 1, No. 2.’ Who [did] they beat last year?” Pat Forde said in an appearance on the Gramlich & Mac Lain show.

Those losses are the main reason why Swinney was one of the tailenders in the final CFP rankings. “They’re going to be good… top 10. But that’s too big a leap,” he added. The Gamecocks have already defeated Cade Klubnik and Co. twice now. Georgia trampled Clemson. Yes, Klubnik will likely meet his match in Garrett Nussmeier in the LSU game. But what if LaNorris Sellers or Miller Moss get the best out of an elite Clemson squad?

Clemson sure does come back roaring in the 2025 season. But its shining legacy so far demands nothing short of a National Championship this year. Especially when a team so strong makes this a very possible reality. Dabo Swinney has to make sure those 3 losses from last year do not find a way to become a repetition in 2025, so that he finishes well and good with a respectable playoff spot.