The Indiana Hoosiers are 5-0 this season. Their biggest came in Week 4 when they demolished Illinois 63-10. But Curt Cignetti knows his schedule is full of hurdles. None bigger than what awaits him in Eugene as they take on fellow undefeated Oregon in Week 7. But if Joel Klatt is to be believed, this is not the game that’ll make or break Indiana’s season. They may lose against the Ducks and still end up making the playoffs if they win this one crucial matchup.

The Big 10 table doesn’t give us the full picture of who’ll eventually make the playoffs. For instance, in the Big 12, Texas Tech and BYU have established themselves at the top. In the Big 10, it’s Ohio State and the rest. Among the rest, Oregon leads the pack, and then you have teams like Indiana, Illinois, USC, Michigan, Nebraska, and of course, Penn State. James Franklin’s team is not yet out of it despite having two losses, and that may make their game against Indiana an interesting watch.

The last time Indiana faced Penn State was in 2023, losing 33-24, a season that saw them win just 3 games. Those dynamics don’t necessarily favor the Hoosiers against Penn State on November 8th, despite having Curt Cignetti. But, since this would be the first time Cignetti would be facing James Franklin at Beaver Stadium, can he overcome them?

FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt, in his recent podcast episode, talked about how Curt Cignetti’s CFP fate this year will be decided by the Nittany Lions game. “Week 11, November 8th, Indiana at Penn State. Now, this is also massive because regardless of what happens for Penn State against Ohio State, this one’s going to be a massive one for Indiana… If Curt Cignetti wants to make a second straight CFP, I think they have to beat Penn State on the road,” said Klatt.

It was pretty embarrassing for Penn State after they lost to Nico Iamaleava’s UCLA, a team that was without its head coach. Drew Allar, too, isn’t performing, showing those big-game jitters, and maintains a meager 64.7% efficiency for 963 passing yards. However, despite that, Penn State can surely bounce back and has everything, including one of the two best running backs and a revamped WR room. But that’s not why Indiana is cautioned to be wary of Penn State.

Joel Klatt speculated on a scenario where Indiana loses its Week 7 game against Oregon and then goes on to lose against Penn State, too. According to him, a 10-2 resume might not work in Indiana’s favor for the CFP committee. “Could they get in if they don’t, and they’re a 10-2? Yes. But I do think that they’re going to be in a resume battle. And that resume, because of the non-conference, is not going to look fantastic.”

The non-conference schedule has surely come under heavy criticism for Indiana. Indiana this year has avoided both of the Big Ten’s blue bloods, Michigan and Ohio State, and the only ranked opponent ahead right now is Oregon. However, the team has also played a game against Old Dominion and Indiana State, both FCS opponents, and defeated them comfortably. The third non-conference game was then against the Kennesaw State Owls, a G-5 team, whom Indiana defeated 59-6 in Week 2.

NCAA, College League, USA Football: Old Dominion at Indiana Aug 30, 2025 Bloomington, Indiana, USA Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza 15 warms up prior to the game against the Old Dominion Monarchs at Memorial Stadium. Bloomington Memorial Stadium Indiana USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xRobertxGoddinx 20250830_tdc_ga3_046All three games don’t bolster their CFP resume one bit, and a 10-2 season could now see another team steer ahead of them in the CFP final rankings. Last year, we saw calls against Indiana after people called for Alabama to be selected over the Hoosiers due to its non-conference slate. But even without that possibility again, the CFP director also talked about “playing weak games” recently, fueling speculations about Indiana’s non-conference slate. 

CFP director’s statement  makes margins for error tight for Curt Cignetti

Indiana has exceeded expectations under Curt Cignetti, and even if the team fails to make the playoffs this season, no public sentiment will turn on Cignetti. For one, the program isn’t used to sustained success, unlike its basketball program, and this is Cignetti’s second season. Still, for the head coach, making the playoffs is paramount, and he has remained unapologetic about the non-conference slate. “All right? So we figured we would just adopt the SEC scheduling philosophy, you know,” said Cignetti sarcastically.

However, CFP executive director Rich Clark has signaled strongly that wins against “weaker” teams will not benefit the team much. “If you play a weaker team or they have a lesser strength of schedule and you beat that team, you’re going to gain something, but your gain is not going to be as much. But if you lose to that team, you stand the risk of losing a lot,” said the director. That said, it’s entirely possible and quite achievable that Indiana again finishes with an 11-win season.