Indiana might be undefeated, but Curt Cignetti’s offense looked anything but championship-worthy against Nebraska. The Hoosiers barely escaped with a 20-17 victory, and apparently, moving the chains was too much to ask. Now Ryan Day’s fourth-ranked Ohio State is heading to Bloomington for a top-five showdown, where those mistakes could become a lot more expensive. And the numbers explain exactly why Cignetti should be concerned.

Indiana converted just one of 10 third-down attempts against Nebraska. Even a successful fourth-down conversion only improved that combined record to 2-for-11. That’s hardly the execution expected from an undefeated contender, especially one preparing to face Matt Patricia’s Ohio State defense.

“Yeah, you’re not going to win many games doing that,” Cignetti admitted during Monday’s press conference. However, he recalled one of the biggest victories of his coaching career at Elon, when his team overcame poor third-down execution to snap James Madison’s lengthy home winning streak in 2018. While Cignetti remembered converting three of 15 attempts, NCAA records show Elon actually went 1-for-15 in the 27-24 upset. Even so, he emphasized the importance of offensive efficiency. “Bottom line is win, but if you’re good on third down it sure helps.”

Nebraska exposed those problems early. Kyle Cunanan opened the scoring with a 28-yard field goal before Nyziah Hunter’s 10-yard touchdown run gave the Cornhuskers a 10-3 first-quarter lead. Indiana managed just two field goals through three quarters, and Anthony Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run extended Nebraska’s advantage to 17-6 with 12:01 remaining. Apparently, the Hoosiers needed to be pushed to the brink before their offense finally woke up.

Josh Hoover connected with Nick Marsh on a 75-yard touchdown just 10 seconds later, then found him again for a 44-yard score with 7:13 remaining to complete the comeback. Two explosive plays rescued Indiana from an embarrassing defeat, but they hardly made up for an afternoon of offensive inconsistency.

And that’s where Ohio State presents a much bigger challenge. Despite featuring several new faces, Matt Patricia’s defense has impressed Cignetti with its coaching and athleticism. The Buckeyes have players capable of disrupting drives and creating difficult situations for opposing quarterbacks. Indiana’s inability to convert third downs could play directly into Patricia’s hands.

But the passing game wasn’t Cignetti’s only concern. After the Nebraska matchup, a Cornhuskers defender suggested that Indiana’s offensive tendencies were easier to recognize based on its tight end alignment. That raised an uncomfortable question about whether the Hoosiers had become too predictable.

Cignetti didn’t dismiss the concern.

“Good teams have tendencies, but you gotta have some change-up pitches, too,” Cignetti said. “The run game’s gotta have at-bats. When you run 16 plays in the first half, you know, you’re not getting many at-bats.”

With only 16 offensive plays before halftime, Indiana barely had an opportunity to establish its rushing attack. Nebraska’s ability to control possession compounded the problem, leaving Cignetti’s offense with limited chances to adjust.

And while Indiana searches for answers offensively, its defense has an entirely different nightmare waiting in Jeremiah Smith. Cignetti praised the Ohio State receiver’s development, noting that he had recorded nine touchdown catches over his previous three or four games.

The Indiana coach called Smith a “freak” and acknowledged that containing him would require an exceptional defensive effort. With the Buckeyes also capable of moving the football on the ground, Ryan Day has multiple ways to attack the Hoosiers.

Ohio State enters the matchup following a commanding 45-16 victory over Maryland, while Indiana carries its 6-0 record into Saturday’s home showdown. Cignetti has urged the Bloomington crowd to create a hostile atmosphere, but crowd noise alone won’t solve Indiana’s offensive problems.

The Hoosiers survived Nebraska thanks to two fourth-quarter touchdown passes. Against Ohio State, relying on another last-minute rescue could be a gamble Cignetti cannot afford. And if Patricia’s defense exposes the same weaknesses, Indiana’s perfect record could be in serious trouble.