The Indiana Hoosiers are on a generational run — all thanks to Curt Cignetti. The former James Madison head coach has taken the Hoosiers to their highest-ever AP poll ranking (#2) and, allegedly, turned Indiana into a football school — all within two years. Guess what? The Hoosiers have been whooping their opps by an average margin of about 30 points in their first 7 games. Despite being massive 25.5-point favorites against UCLA, one college football analyst believes this game will be tighter and more competitive than people expect.

Indiana enters the matchup as a heavy favorite, listed at -25.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Oddsmakers clearly expect the Hoosiers to dominate, with a lopsided moneyline of -4167 for Indiana and +1367 for UCLA. However, CBS Sports analyst Emory Hunt isn’t buying the blowout narrative. On October 25th, Hunt joined Brad Crawford and Richard Johnson on CBS Sports and explained why he thinks UCLA under Tim Skipper could keep things close. “I look at this Indiana–UCLA game as a situation where the sportsbook is probably basing this game off of September UCLA,” Hunt said.

On paper, this one looks like a cakewalk for the undefeated Hoosiers, but if you’ve been paying attention, you know UCLA isn’t playing the same football it was a few weeks ago. According to Hunt, oddsmakers set the spread based on the Bruins’ September form — when they went 0-4 — not their October version under Tim Skipper. Since October, UCLA has been undefeated, winning three straight. Hunt doubled down with his own prediction: “This is a completely different team right now, and I think this is a good enough offense and a competitive defense to where they can keep this point spread of Indiana at 25 and a half under that number — maybe a backdoor cover. We’ll see this team compete for four quarters. I’ll take UCLA plus 25 and a half versus Indiana.”

Hunt is predicting that UCLA will perform well enough to stay within 25.5 points of Indiana — in other words, he expects them to cover the spread. Even if Indiana ultimately wins, Hunt anticipates that UCLA will battle hard for all four quarters, potentially scoring late to keep the margin close (“a backdoor cover”). His analysis says that while Indiana may be the superior team on paper, the gap between these programs isn’t wide enough right now to justify such a large point spread — and honestly, it kind of makes sense. If Tim Skipper pulls this off, it would definitely cement him as the permanent head coach.

Since DeShaun Foster’s firing, Tim Skipper completely flipped UCLA’s identity and went on to beat Penn State, Maryland and Northwestern. It feels like a different team from their season opener. With Jerry Neuheisel calling the plays, their offense has suddenly come to life, averaging 33.3 points in the last three games compared to a pitiful 14.3 over the first four.

Even their defense is on the money, the defense has tightened up big time, giving up just 21 points per game under Skipper after bleeding out 36 points per contest previously. It’s night and day from where they were, and it’s all because they’re finally having fun and playing with some fire.

UCLA’s defensive analyst on Curt Cignetti’s Hoosier

UCLA senior defensive analyst Kevin Coyle has helped turn around what used to be one of the weakest defenses in college football. On Wednesday, he spoke about the big test his defense will face against Indiana, praising the Hoosiers for their discipline and execution. “This is a really impressive, well-coached football team.They don’t make mistakes. They don’t try to trick you necessarily…They just out-execute people.”

Coyle explained that Indiana plays a very physical, old-school style of football, something he personally respects. He also mentioned that their running backs are tough, and their receivers can turn quick passes into big plays. Because of that, he knows UCLA’s defense will need to step up. “We’re going to have to play clearly better than we have played up to this point to be able to slow them down,” Coyle said.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Indiana ranks as the seventh-best offense in the nation with an efficiency rating of 84.2, which backs up Coyle’s praise. Meanwhile, UCLA’s defense sits at 86th* with a 46.1 rating, though that number might not tell the whole story after the team’s slow start to the season. Despite the challenge, Coyle sounded confident that the Bruins are improving every week and are “looking forward to the challenge” with strong preparation heading into the matchup.