All good things must come to an end. It hasn’t technically ended yet, but the prognosis for Curt Cignetti and Indiana in the first round of the 12-team CFP is grim. The Hoosiers lost to Ohio State in their regular season, their lone loss against their only ranked opponent. With an 11-1 record, they snagged the No. 10 seed in the playoffs. They’ll travel to South Bend to face their in-state opponents, Notre Dame, who is the No. 7 seed. But as mentioned, despite a fruitful season run, the playoff is not a good forecast for Indiana. 

Notre Dame enters as a heavily favored team in the first playoff round against Indiana. Ahead of the playoffs, ESPN experts came together on ESPN College Football on December 18 to discuss Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers’ fate in their first-ever playoff appearance. Ryan McGee said, “In state schools, they have had like played 90 times, they’ve played 29 times, and this will be the only second time they played since 1958. The series is 23-5-1 in favor of Notre Dame. Indiana’s only win in South Bend, the first time they ever played on November 11, 1898.”

Both Notre Dame and Indiana are from the same state with just about a 3-hour distance drive. But the last time they played was in 1991. As McGee reported above, the Fighting Irish are the dominant team, winning all of their last six games by at least 18 points. The last time Indiana won over Notre Dame was in 1950 when they met in Bloomington. And it’s not just the history that favors Marcus Freeman and his team.

Ryan McGee also added, “I think Notre Dame, if you’ve really been paying attention, they’ve played like we thought they should play for the last month. So I think they win. Not easily but handily.” The harsh and cold weather conditions at Notre Dame Stadium could also favor the Fighting Irish, whose offensive style leans more on the run game. They’re 10th in the nation with 224.8 rushing yards per game, thanks to their QB Riley Leonard, who rushed for 721 yards with 14 rushing touchdowns, and RB Jeremiah Love, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry this season. For now, there may not be other teams in the playoffs like Notre Dame that enjoy a relatively easy path to the natty.

Curt Cignetti’s fall would give Notre Dame a strong shot at national championship 

Notre Dame enters the playoff R1 against Indiana as a 7.5-point favorite to win. Their only loss is to Northern Illinois in their second game. Unlike Indiana, who lost their only ranked game, the Fighting Irish salvaged their lone loss by beating four ranked teams to earn the No. 7 seed with their 11-1 record. And if they win the first playoff round, better things await. 

As ESPN analyst Rece Davis observed, “If Notre Dame can get past this one, I could see Notre Dame running this thing out and potentially even playing for the National Championship.” Notre Dame is positioned in such a way that if they beat Indiana, they’ll face No. 2 Georgia in the playoff quarterfinals. They won’t be meeting formidable teams like Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Ohio State. While the Bulldogs are a force in themselves, they’re currently plagued with QB issues with Carson Beck’s uncertain playoff status. 

But in such an unpredictable sport, Curt Cignetti and Indiana could upset Notre Dame for all we know! And if they do, they’ll also get as much of a chance at the natty as the Fighting Irish.