If there’s an Atlantic Coast Conference standard, Clemson is it. A founding ACC member, the Tigers boast 28 total conference championships, including a six-win streak from 2015 to 2020, making it the winningest program in the conference. But Dabo Swinney just got a harsh reality check heading into 2026. And it came from early projections that left his team out of the ACC’s top-tier conversation.

Clemson is being viewed as middle-of-the-pack in its own league. According to PFSN’s College Football Playoff Predictor, based on 10,000 simulations, the most likely ACC champions in 2026 look like this: Miami at 34.1%, Virginia at 20.7%, Syracuse at 11.5%, Louisville at 9.6%, North Carolina at 7.5%, and Georgia Tech at 6.5%, there was no mention of Clemson. It was nowhere among those top six, and that’s a far cry from the standard Dabo Swinney has gained a reputation for. 

Clemson going 7-6 in 2025 after week-to-week inconsistencies is one of the reasons media outlets aren’t high on them. Plus, roster turnover is part of the equation, as 2026 will hinge on new faces in big roles. Chad Morris is returning to call plays as OC. Dabo Swinney might give Christopher Vizzina the starting job at QB while T.J. Moore could become the offense’s go-to target. On defense, Sammy Brown and Will Heldt are expected to anchor a unit that might be ahead of the offense early.

Another thing is the minimal usage of the transfer portal, as Clemson is looking at only nine newcomers, ranking 69th nationally and 15th in the ACC. To Dabo Swinney’s credit, the Tigers’ high school recruiting process remains strong.

But while others are aggressively retooling through the portal, they’re still betting on internal development. 

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CBS Sports echoed the doubt, ranking Clemson No. 7 in its ACC power rankings. 

“Betting on Clemson’s success in 2026 is belief in a new wave of talent taking over in the wake of a mass exodus from last year’s squad,” Chip Patterson wrote. “Maybe new blood can yield new results after a couple of seasons of underperforming, but there’s enough unknown to prevent a placement inside the top five of the league when it comes to power rankings.”

Clemson’s low rankings also have something to do with its schedule. They have home games locked against Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Then there are road trips to Cal, Florida State, Duke, and Syracuse. As you can see, several of the very teams projected ahead of them are right there on the slate. All these lead to one hypothetical situation about Dabo Swinney.

Is there anyone who can fill Dabo Swinney’s shoes?

In his hypothetical preseason scenario, Stewart Mandel of The Athletic floated a chain reaction. $87M Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer gets fired eight games into 2026, the SEC carousel spins, and Clemson becomes a landing spot if Dabo Swinney steps away amid frustration over transfer portal tampering. Now that’s a far-fetched scenario, but for the Tigers to even be in this conversation, it shows a change of interest. 

Dabo Swinney is coming off his worst season since 2008. The 7-6 record included a 22-10 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Penn State. Then, just last month, his frustration over the transfer portal boiled up as he publicly accused Ole Miss of “blatant tampering,” complete with evidence forwarded to the NCAA and ACC. Financially, though, he’s secure. 

Dabo Swinney signed a 10-year, $115 million extension in 2021 running through 2031. His reported buyout entering 2026 sits around $60 million, so he’s potentially locked in. And this will be a year for him to prove that Clemson still belongs in the top tier of ACC conversation.