The Heisman trophy is often considered a herculean task for a Vanderbilt QB, a team that’s long doubted by the SEC. But in a surprising turn of events, after the collapse of his chief rivals on championship weekend, Diego Pavia is now the favorite to lift the coveted trophy.

Before the game, it was a super tight race, with Mendoza and Sayin pretty much neck-and-neck as the top guys, and the feeling was that whoever won that game would likely take the Heisman. Both had all the stats to win it in the low-score Heisman race. Fernando Mendoza led the FBS in most touchdowns (34), and Julian Sayin leads the nation with an almost 80% completion rate, which is unheard of in the Power 4. Plus, he’s got 30 touchdowns.

But things went south for both of them in a hurry. In the first quarter, both Mendoza and Sayin threw early interceptions. It was a pretty choppy start for two players who needed big, clean performances to seal the deal.

On December 6, On3 hopped onto X and shared the news Vandy fans never imagined they would witness in their lifetime. “Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (-110) is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, per @BetMGM⚓️”

According to BetMGM lists, Pavia is the clear favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, with odds of -110. Mendoza is second at +175, and Sayin is third at +300, showing that bettors see them as less likely to win but still in contention. Even though Pavia isn’t playing in a game this weekend, more people are starting to bet on him, which is why his odds are moving in his favor.

While those two were struggling to put up numbers heading into halftime at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts, Diego Pavia was just chilling. He had already finished his stellar season after missing the playoffs because of bias, well at least, according to many.

The former New Mexico QB had a fantastic year. He led Vanderbilt to a program-record 10 wins. That alone is huge for a team that’s historically been the SEC’s doormat. His great performance throughout the season, even in the losses, combined with the mistakes from his rivals in their biggest game, helped voters and oddsmakers see him as the best choice.

Case for Pavia

Pavia has been making a strong case for himself all year, not only with a good story, but also with some solid numbers. He’s thrown for over 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns, and he’s also a major threat running the ball, with over 800 rushing yards and nine more scores. The man has already won the Johnny Unitas Award.

He’s even the first player in SEC history to have four straight games with over 400 yards of total offense. Which is pretty wild if you think about it. What makes it even more impressive is that he’s doing it in a running-focused offense on a team that was considered a joke for years and hardly ever seen as a place for a Heisman winner in the SEC.

Even though Diego Pavia and Clark Lea’s dream of making the playoffs is gone, Pavia still has a chance to win one final big honor for his team. Clark Lea tried to take a gamble by pushing for Vanderbilt to host an extra game to improve their playoff chances. But that plan didn’t work out. Despite this setback, and with many other quarterbacks across the country underperforming, Diego Pavia has risen to the top of the Heisman Trophy race.

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Now we just have to wait and see. Voting ballots close very soon, and the official Heisman presentation ceremony will be held on December 10th. Heisman voting opened on Saturday at 5 p.m. ET and will close Monday at 5 p.m. ET, giving voters a 48-hour window to submit their picks. Thanks to all the drama in the Big Ten title game, it looks like this amazing underdog story from Vanderbilt might just end with the biggest individual award in college football.