What does it take to win the Heisman? Two-way talent like Travis Hunter? Or unprecedented passing yards like Joe Burrow? Or maybe a carry job like Cam Newton’s 2010 season? But, except maybe Travis Hunter, all the other names had the luxury of their teams standing at least near the pedestal of the natty glory. For Diego Pavia, that possibility isn’t unlikely, but it won’t be short of a miracle either.

Pavia’s season so far is nothing short of breathtaking. The QB has accumulated 1,569 passing yards and 438 rushing yards, with a 70.5% completion rate. The performances haven’t come against minnows either. Vanderbilt is 6-1 so far and has defeated teams like South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and, most recently, LSU 31-24. Ideally, it should give Vandy a massive boost for CFP contention. However, according to FOX Sports’ Chris ‘Bear’ Fallica, it won’t.

Chris Fallica appeared on Joel Klatt’s October 22 podcast episode and reluctantly picked Vanderbilt in his national championship contention list. Despite the pick, though, Fallica outlined the scenario to be highly unlikely. “Wouldn’t it be great to see Vandy beat Missouri, go to Texas and win, go to Neyland and win, sitting there 11 and one, and get to the playoff? Diego Pavia is in New York to be at the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Why not, right?” said Fallica. However, despite his wishes for the scenario to happen, the analyst outlined why it won’t.

“Clark Lea has done an awesome job. They are so well coached. The offensive line is so underrated. They’re physical. They run the ball so well… They’re not going to win. But you know what? at 11. They probably might not even make the playoffs.” Without a playoff berth for Vanderbilt, it would be too far-fetched to expect Diego Pavia to be nominated for the Heisman trophy.

For instance, from 2000-2024, a total of 17 Heisman winners have been QBs, and 14 of them came from the AP top 10 teams. Since 1935, 49 QBs have won the trophy, and a majority of them played for national championship contender teams. That dynamic makes Diego Pavia winning the Heisman highly unlikely and would require a miracle.

Doug Flutie of Boston College did win the Heisman in 1984 despite the team finishing unranked in the final AP poll. That happened owing to his iconic ‘Hail Flutie’ miracle pass that is still a symbol of college football’s brilliance. Moreover, Vandy’s playoff possibility is also highly variable.

Does Vandy have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs?

Vanderbilt has 5 games left on its schedule; at least 4 opponents would give them a mounting challenge. The Commodores play Missouri (6-1) this weekend. Interestingly, both Vandy and Missouri have lost to the same team in Alabama. After the Tigers, Clark Lea will go against Steve Sarkisian’s Texas on the road. At the moment, the Missouri matchup may look tougher than the Longhorns one. But Texas’ defense can still beat you even when the offense is not having a good day.

Auburn, too, would give Vandy a challenge, but that seems like a winnable game. Lastly, Tennessee, in the final game, will present a formidable defense and a top 10 run game, which will take place at the intimidating Neyland Stadium. Surely, then, the odds of Vanderbilt making the playoffs are looking quite slim considering its schedule. But don’t underestimate the possibility of miracles in college football either.

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The presence of other prolific QBs in the playoffs and Diego Pavia missing it would be detrimental for the player’s Heisman hopes. For context, QBs like Julian Sayin and Ty Simpson are playing well already, and the performances would surely soar in the playoffs.