Hugh Freeze has done what his predecessor couldn’t—make it to year 3. But ‘you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.’ And right now, results are what matter, and Auburn hasn’t been getting them under Freeze. Two seasons in, the Tigers are sitting at 11-14, and the goodwill from hitting the reset button post-Bryan Harsin has just about run out. The program has poured millions into rebuilding, stacking back-to-back top-15 recruiting classes, and bringing in the No. 8 transfer portal haul in the nation. Yet, as the 2025 season looms, Auburn isn’t just dealing with expectations—it’s staring at a crossroads.

Forget February’s $1M splash on WR Eric Singleton Jr., where Freeze pulled him from Georgia Tech. Not only that, they had to beat the likes of LSU, Texas, Ole Miss, etc. Locked On College Football podcast’s Spencer McLaughlin reveals why Hugh is in a huge problem. First things first, a quarterback situation feels more like a gamble than a solution. Auburn’s new starter, Jackson Arnold, is a top-10, five-star prospect. More? Freeze’s seat is the hottest of any SEC coach in 2025. That includes Billy Napier, Sam Pittman, Brent Venables, and Mark Stoops.

The Oklahoma transfer QB did all he could in 17 games. He completed 62.9% of his passes for 1,984 yards and threw 16 touchdowns to six interceptions. But Arnold’s play was nothing short of a disaster. “Jackson Arnold has got all the potential in the world,” McLaughlin said. “He wasn’t a five-star quarterback recruit by accident. He even showed in a college setting that potential, but last year was a disaster.” That’s the kind of label that sticks. It’s also the kind of baggage that doesn’t magically disappear just because a player switches jerseys.

The issue isn’t just Arnold—it’s the situation he’s walking into. “The reason I don’t love this marriage for Hugh and Auburn,” McLaughlin continued, “is that Hugh Freeze is facing serious pressure here. There is legitimate pressure on this guy. He’s going into his third year. He can’t say he hasn’t been given time. He can’t say he doesn’t have the resources.” And he’s right. Hugh Freeze has been handed everything a coach could ask for—blue-chip recruits, big-money transfers, and full administrative backing. But those investments come with expectations.

Making matters worse? Auburn’s brutal schedule. The Tigers won’t host an impact home game until October 11, when Georgia rolls into town. That’s a long time for a fan base already teetering on the edge of frustration. “Guess what? He’s got another thing working against him,” McLaughlin added. “Not just the question mark at quarterback—he’s got a schedule that doesn’t play an impact home game until Georgia comes to town on October 11th. October 11th is how long those Auburn fans have to wait.” If Auburn stumbles early, the pressure on Freeze is going to skyrocket.

Billy Napier knows a thing or two about coaching on the hot seat, but he found a way to buy himself more time at Florida. His 8-5 finish and the Gasparilla Bowl win gave him some breathing room, and more importantly, he had a future star in five-star freshman DJ Lagway to hang his hopes on. Freeze doesn’t have that luxury. Arnold isn’t a true freshman with untapped potential—he’s a transfer quarterback coming off a rough season, expected to turn things around immediately. There’s no developmental cushion, no ‘wait until next year’ excuse.

And then there’s the financial side of it all. It’s also that the program would be on the hook for about $20 million for Freeze’s post-2025 buyout if it moved on from a 3rd coach in the 2020s. So, what’s one more if the results aren’t there?

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What KPI does Hugh Freeze need to hit to stay at Jordan-Hare Stadium?

Hugh Freeze is entering a critical third year at Auburn, and let’s be real—the clock is ticking. So far, the Tigers haven’t cracked a winning record under his watch, and if things don’t change soon, the Freeze era might get cut short. His first season showed some promise with a 6-7 finish and a bowl appearance (albeit a loss), but last year? A step backward at 5-7 with no postseason. That’s not going to cut it on the Plains.

According to SEC Network’s Paul Finebaum, Freeze is officially out of excuses. “I think Hugh Freeze is down to one opportunity to prove that he is the offensive genius that we all have credited him with being,” Finebaum said on The Paul Finebaum Show. Auburn’s defense has held its own the past two seasons, but the offense? Not so much.

The bottom line? If Auburn doesn’t hit at least 8-4 in 2025, Freeze might be looking for a new job.