Is there a chance for the Big 12 winners to take over the Mountain West victors? Heading into this weekend’s conference championship games, Boise State is the favorite to emerge as the top 4 seed to receive a first-round bye in the playoffs. But Arizona State just made a statement in their last game against Iowa State. So now, who gets where?  

ESPN analyst Matt Barrie isn’t ready to let the complexity of the 12-team playoff format leave him in the dark. Raising his concerns on the top-4 projected seeds, he said on X on December 8, “I need one person to explain to me WHY @ASUFootball wouldn’t be ranked ahead of Boise St. tomorrow. It’s not a hard decision. Quit focusing on Boise St’s “narrow loss” to Oregon.”

Both Boise State and Arizona State dominated their opponents in their respective conference championship games. The Broncos clinched the Mountain West title on Friday after their 21-7 win over UNLV. Despite being a Group of Five team, they surpassed the Power Four team. The complexity resurfaced as ASU just hauled in a huge 45-19 victory over Iowa State to be crowned the Big 12 champions in their first year in a new conference. So Barrie’s question is, can they now move ahead of Boise State? 

The argument that No. 15 Arizona State brings to the table is that they’re a Power Four team that played a relatively tougher schedule. Their strength of schedule ranks No. 72 by ESPN, while No. 10 Boise State falls behind at No. 82. The Sun Devils suffered two losses to TTU and Cincinnati this season. But the second loss is understandable as starting QB Sam Leavitt wasn’t present due to injury. Still, can their 11-2 record take them ahead of a 12-1 champion?

Why Boise State holds the upper edge over Arizona State 

Arizona State is 2-1 against ranked opponents in the CFP (BYU, Iowa State). But perhaps it’s best not to have high expectations. Boise State had been a dominant force all season. They suffered no worse loss than ASU when they fell to Cincinnati. Of course, that lone loss to No. 1 Oregon can’t be overlooked. 

With a 37-34 record, they’re one of just two teams who gave the Ducks’ undefeated season a scare, the other team being Ohio State with 32-31. Taking sides with the Broncos, it’s even more understandable that a Group of Five team couldn’t beat the nation’s No. 1 team that no one else beat.

If Dan Lanning wasn’t included in their schedule, they might have been an undefeated team! We never know. As much as Barrie would love to object, the CFP committee could favor Boise State over Arizona State as the one to receive a first-round bye.