Ryan Day has spent seven seasons in Columbus learning how to live with big expectations. The problem is, college football does not reward promises; it only respects results. On Thursday, ESPN made a loud statement about what it thinks will happen in Year eight. The numbers sound impressive. But they also come with a warning that history has given before.

According to ESPN’s first FPI rankings for 2026, Ohio State enters the season as the country’s top team with an FPI score of 28.7. Texas (26.9) and Notre Dame (25.9) round out the top three. The projections also have the Buckeyes finishing around 10-2, with a 75.7% chance to reach the CFP and a 38.8% chance to capture the Big Ten title.

In other words, the computers believe Ryan Day has the strongest team in the nation before a single snap has been played. That’s a powerful endorsement heading into his eighth season in Columbus. But if history is any guide, it also means Ohio State just inherited the biggest target in the sport.

There’s no mystery why ESPN is high on the Buckeyes. They bring back QB Julian Sayin, who enters the season as one of the country’s biggest stars after finishing among the top 10 in Heisman Trophy voting. Standing beside him is elite WR Jeremiah Smith, another returning Heisman top-10 finalist, while RB Bo Jackson gives the offense yet another proven weapon.

Ohio State’s defense will look a little different in Matt Patricia’s second season, but it won’t be starting from scratch. Kenyatta Jackson is back to lead the pass rush, giving the Buckeyes a familiar face they can count on. Add in a solid group of returning veterans and another loaded recruiting class, and it’s easy to see why there’s so much excitement about what this defense could become.

Ryan Day is getting plenty of respect, too. ESPN placed him third in its preseason coaching rankings, with only Curt Cignetti and Kirby Smart ahead of him. He also picked up a first-place vote after winning at an incredible rate, posting a .872 career winning percentage, the third-best in college football history.

Year eight in Columbus is not just another number for Day. He has already won a national title, survived brutal close calls, and watched stars leave for the NFL. Now he returns with a veteran quarterback, a Heisman-level receiver, and a defense built to chase championships. The expectation is not only to contend. It is to justify ESPN’s early crown while history whispers about how often it falls.

Ryan Day is also named to the 2026 Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Award Preseason Watch List, recognizing coaches who combine on-field success with leadership, scholarship and integrity. Everything points toward another championship chase. And that’s why one former Alabama QB thinks Ohio State should be nervous.

Can Ryan Day’s Ohio State keep its No. 1 preseason ranking?

Greg McElroy isn’t questioning Ohio State’s talent. Speaking on Always College Football, he called the Buckeyes the nation’s most talented roster. But his main concern came from the history of preseason No. 1 rankings. 

“The crown is a curse,” he said. “One wire-to-wire national champion in 76 years. Two preseason number ones standing at the end of this century in this entire century. We’ve had three straight preseason No. 1 teams that didn’t even make the playoffs… Ohio State currently wears the preseason crown, but history says they should be a little bit terrified of it. So, bet on defense, fade the coronation. We’ll see who’s standing in January.”

A wire-to-wire national champion, one that starts the year ranked No. 1 and never loses that spot, has happened only eight times since the AP began preseason rankings in 1950. Even more telling, the last three preseason No. 1 teams all missed the playoffs, including Texas last season after opening the year with enormous expectations before finishing the way they did. That is the burden Ohio State now carries as ESPN’s early favorite.

Ryan Day does not need ESPN’s computers or coaching rankings to validate what his team is capable of. The only prediction that matters is the one made in January. Until then, Ohio State’s biggest opponent may not be Texas, Notre Dame, or Michigan. It might just be the weight of being everyone’s favorite in Year eight under Day.