Fresh reporting from ESPN’s Heather Dinich suggests that there is significant momentum building for the CFP to expand to 16 teams as soon as next season. However, that outcome hinges on the shoulders of Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, and whether they can strike a deal before the deadline of 23rd January. 

At this moment, Petitti’s Big Ten isn’t open to a 16-team playoff for 2026 without getting something bigger in return. According to Dinich’s reporting, they will back the 16-team expansion only if Greg Sankey and the SEC commit now to jumping to 24 teams within two or three years. It’s essentially a leverage play, with the Big Ten using its support as a bargaining67 chip to lock in a massive playoff down the road. 

From the Big Ten’s perspective, the timeline makes sense. Three years with 16 teams would give conferences enough runway to eliminate their championship games. They will restructure television contracts to accommodate play-in games or whatever new postseason format they prefer. A 16-team field would maintain most of the current structure, five conference champions plus 11 at-large bids, while adding four more spots for teams that narrowly miss out under the current 12-team system.​

For now, although Sankey isn’t biting. He has made it clear in discussions that he supports the 16-team playoffs. But he’s flatly refusing to commit right now to a 24-team format two or three years down the line, sources told Dinich. But, there’s a twist. A 24-team playoff without automatic qualifiers might be appealing enough for Sankey to reconsider. And that is particularly because the SEC’s deep roster of competitive teams would have a better shot at filling those spots based purely on committee selection rather than conference championship requirements. 

Some decision-makers within the SEC would actually prefer a system that includes the 16 best teams. But there’s recognition that completely shutting out the Group of 5 teams is politically impossible. The selection controversy from this past season has only intensified these debates.​

The stalemate between these two powerbrokers is the only thing standing between the playoff staying at 12 teams or expanding next season. Under the new governance structure, Petitti and Sankey effectively control the playoffs’ format. The commissioners and Bevacqua no longer need approval from the full Board of Managers to make changes. So, if Petitti and Sankey can’t bridge their differences by January 23, the playoff will remain at 12 teams for another season. 

Bowl games caught in the CFP uncertainty

While Petitti and Sankey work through their playoff expansion standoff, the traditional bowl system is stuck in limbo. They wait to see how many teams will even be available for their games come next December. 

If the playoff expands to 16 teams, that’s four more name-brand programs that won’t be playing in bowls like the Citrus, Holiday, or Gator. Jump to 24 teams, and you’re looking at potentially wiping out most of the marquee matchups that made this past bowl season such a success. Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli told reporters he’s confident the bowl system can survive whatever expansion happens.

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He pointed out that non-CFP bowl viewership jumped 13% this past season to an average of 3.1 million viewers, the highest since 2015. The Texas-Michigan Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve pulled 9.05 million viewers, the biggest non-CFP bowl audience in five years. But Carparelli also acknowledged the elephant in the room. He said, “A lot of people are waiting to hear the final decision on the next format of the CFP, and as a result, much of college football is in a little bit of a holding pattern.”

The bigger question is what role the bowl games will play in the playoff itself. Conference commissioners have made it clear they want to preserve the partnership with the six major bowls (Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar, and Orange), which currently host the quarterfinals and semifinals in the 12-team format. But if the playoff expands beyond 16 teams, more first-round and potentially second-round games would likely be played on college campuses. They will further limit the bowls’ involvement in the postseason.